There’s a new Irish question: Does Brexit mean Irexit?

The possibility of Ireland leaving the EU is under discussion but looks politically challenging, writes

If any evidence were needed that the ramifications of Brexit are exercising grey matter beyond these shores, one need only look across the Irish Sea.

The upheaval caused by the UK’S withdrawal from the EU has spawned some hard thinking on the island of Ireland.

Until now, much of the focus has been on what can be done to maintain the soft border between Northern Ireland and the Republic – an understandable priority given the unhappy, fortified frontier of recent memory.

This week, however, has seen attention turn to a slightly different Irish question. Ray Bassett, a former Irish ambassador to Canada, has written an erudite paper for the Policy Exchange think-tank asking whether the Republic of Ireland should follow the UK and leave the European Union.

In days gone by, the very idea of “Irexit” would have been seen as heresy in Dublin. The Irish Republic’s European credentials were once regarded as impeccable.

These credentials were symbolised by the European funded building projects that sprung up when the Celtic Tiger was at its height and the smart new roads and the other infrastructure projects built as a result of EU largesse.

Perhaps the most obvious sign of the Irish Republic’s close ties to the European project has been the adoption of the euro.

More recently, however, there have been signs that the Republic’s love affair with Europe has been on the wane. According to Bassett, the “nadir” of Irish-european relations was the 2010 bail out when the European Central Bank forced the Irish state to take over the private debts of Irish banks.

“It was a wholly despotic manoeuvre and one that showed no real interest in the welfare of the citizens of Ireland, who saw huge private bank debts thrust upon them and the public purse. This was patently unfair. Ireland’s relationship with Europe would never be the same again,” said Bassett in his paper titled “After Brexit: Will Ireland Be Next to Exit?

As Irish EU sympathies have deteriorated, there seems to have been a thawing of age old Angloirish hostilities.

The work done by the Dublin and London governments to secure the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 and the coming of peace to Northern Ireland has been fundamental to that.

As Bassett points out, this newfound respect has been oiled by trade between Britain and Ireland. The UK accounts for nearly 30 per cent of Ireland’s merchandised imports. Ireland depends on UK energy supplies, with 2012 figures suggesting UK imports amounted to 92 per cent of gas used in Ireland and 93 per cent of refined oil products.

The bombshell of the Brexit vote, which very few people in positions of power in Ireland predicted, threatens to destabilise this carefully constructed relationship.

The Irish finance department has warned that Brexit will precipitate falling growth and rising unemployment.

UK withdrawal from the Common Fisheries Policy will prevent Irish fishermen from fishing off the west coast of Scotland and in the British waters of the Irish Sea.

Bassett argued that even that most Irish of passions – horse-racing – would not escape the Brexit effect.

He quoted the chief executive of Horse Racing Ireland Brian Kavanagh’s fear that there is no