Martyn Mclaughlin gears up for a future that is full of electric cars

Volvo’s decision to phase out traditional engines throws down the gauntlet to government, writes Martyn Mclaughlin

Afew weeks ago, I was walking through my home village when I spotted a small crowd gathered on a pavement, pointing across the road. The focus of their attention was a new parking bay, and beside it, a slim charging point. It was, opined one observer, an eyesore. Another went further. wondering aloud whether it was in breach of planning laws.

If this sort of is overreaction is commonplace in Scotland’s commuter belts, where SUVS and 4x4s line leafy streets, it seems the news that the electric car revolution is upon us clearly has yet to filter far and wide. On the one hand, the installation of the village’s first chargepoint made for classic chat for the Nimby brigade, but it also spoke of a wider problem; the surge in green motoring should not be taken for granted.

I wonder what the same moleskin brigade must have thought when, last week, Volvo became the first major car manufacturer to sound the death knell of the conventional engine. The Swedish firm’s announcement that, as of 2019, every new model in its range will be solely hybrid or electric, is a landmark moment for an industry besieged by scandal and consumer mistrust; an innovation long dismissed as a fad looks to be on the cusp of going mainstream.

The speed at which the electric car is predicted to become a mass market reality has taken many by surprise, with some observers doubtful that the aggressive timescale mooted by Volvo and others is realistic. Given the internal combustion engine has powered our transport needs for the past century, the cynicism is deep-rooted, a stance further ingrained by the historical high forecourt prices of electric vehicles and the psychological barriers among drivers who fear running out of power between charges.

The transition will be eased by attitudinal shifts, but the greatest driver of change will be altogether more simple: it boils down to economics. Over the past seven years, the average cost of lithium-ion battery packs used in electric cars has fallen by two-thirds to around £233 per kilowatt-hour, with the price expected to plummet to £56 as manufacturers continue to improve their design and functionality.

The upshot is that, in the space of a decade, the cost of plug-in electric cars will fall into line with petrol or diesel models, even after government subsidies and fuel savings are taken out of the equation.

The research group Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that by 2040, sales of new plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars will outnumber those of their combustion engine counterparts. “Our forecast doesn’t hinge on countries adopting stringent new fuel standards or climate policies,” explains Colin Mckerracher, the group’s head of advanced transport analysis. “It’s an economic analysis, looking at what happens when the upfront cost of electric vehicles reaches parity. That’s when the real shift occurs.”

The cost issue may well bring about a change in consumer behaviour, but if the electric car is to become a mainstay of our roads, it will require more than affordability. In the rush to welcome Volvo’s announcement, there has been too little discussion of the infrastructural barriers that stand in the way of the new technology’s march.

The network of publicly available charge points is growing and in Scotland, now numbers close to 1,000, but how many are located on