The tinkering will continue to maintain confidence
Avid marketwatchers will have noticed that there has been very little change in the short term
The European Central Bank (ECB) announces changes to its policy on quantitative easing and the Bank of England (BOE) increases bank base rates for the first time in ten years.
Are we entering “gamechanging” territory or is it just a question of the more things change the more they stay the same?
The ECB decision will result in a reduction in the bond-buying programme from €60 billion to €30bn from January next year, and it will continue until at least September 2018 and won’t stop until the ECB’S inflation aims are met (sustainable CPI of 2 per cent).
Why? Because the eurozone economy is doing much better and “recalibration” is justified.
In the UK, higher inflation and the economy running at a rate “faster than its speed limit” according to Mark Carney, led to the small increase in bank base rate from 0.25 per cent to 0.50 per cent.
But Mr Carney was also at pains to point out that the BOE would be in no hurry to put them up again any time soon.
Avid market-watchers will have noticed that there has been very little change in the short term as a result of these announcements. Putting it simply, that’s because the market doesn’t like surprises and expectations have been extremely well managed by central banks.
Across the pond, President Trump has proposed major changes to the tax system in a radical policy attempt to boost the US economy following a strong earnings season which saw the S&P 500 climb by a further 2.2 per cent in October.
Around the globe valuations are near alltime highs in most of the major equity markets, which of course has been extremely rewarding for investors but also worrying.
With equity markets high but not close to euphoric levels seen before, we should see further reward.
One thing that we can expect to remain the same for the foreseeable future is further policy tinkering from central banks and governments in order to maintain the principal ingredient for confidence in financial markets – stability.
However as US academic Hyman Minsky put it, “stability begets instability”. Enjoy it while it lasts.