Scots tourism sector ‘gazing over a cliff ’ warns expert
● Migrant worker threat and rising food price inflation hang over industry
Scotland’s tourism industry is “gazing over a cliff ”, an expert has warned, with an “acute” shortage of migrant workers just one of the problems the sector is facing.
Professor John Lennon, director of the Moffat centre for travel and tourism business development at Glasgow Caledonian University, said rising food price inflation could force many operators to increase charges.
Such a move could hit business from so-called “staycationers”, with many across the UK seeing their budgets squeezed as a result of low wage growth and increases in the cost of living.
As a result, Prof Lennon warned of more businesses in the tourism sector “going to the wall” in the coming months. He said the tourism industry had been “performing incredibly well”, partly as a result of the drop in the pound post-brexit making the industry more competitive.
He said: “Tourism in Scotland, and indeed across the UK, has made gains from the big decline in the value of sterling against major currencies.
“The UK is far more affordable to many tourists from key international markets than it was before the Brexit vote.”
Despite this, the expert added: “My strong impression is that the Scottish industry is gazing over a cliff.”
0 Rosslyn Chapel saw visitor numbers soar last year
In an article on The Conversation website, which highlights work by the academic and research community, he stated: “Scotland, like the UK as a whole, is a net importer of foods.
“Hoteliers and food and beverage operators are going to have to move their prices up because their margins are going to be attacked.
“Talk to anyone in the hospitality world at the moment and they will tell you about food price inflation already well in excess of the 4 per cent to 5 per cent reported.
“The time has to be coming when tourists will find the pound in their pocket going less far.
“Many international visitors will be able to take the price hike. Many domestic tourtacted ists will not because they are being squeezed in two ways: low wage growth and gathering inflation at the same time.
“What does this mean? As we move through January, February, March, expect to see more liquidations in the tourism industry; more businesses going to the wall, particularly the highly leveraged ones.”
He added: “Another issue is labour: Scottish tourism and hospitality relies on a supply of migrant workers and the country is already bleeding EU nationals.
“The availability of labour working in the sector is becoming acute and will continue into 2018.”
To help tackle the problems Rosslyn Chapel has reported a record breaking year in 2017 – with more people visiting than in 2006, when the Da Vinci Code film was released, catapulting the 15th centry chapel into the international spotlight.
Just over 181,700 paying visitors bought tickets to visit Rosslyn last year, beating 2006’s 175,074.
The historic Midlothian church came to worldwide prominence in 2003 when it was identified as the hiding place of the Holy Grail in Dan Brown’s best-selling novel, The Da Vinci Code, and the film released three years later. Visitor numbers rose dramatically at that time.
Ian Gardner, director of Rosslyn Chapel Trust, said: “It is wonderful to have welcomed a record number of visitors in 2017.” the industry is facing, he suggested Scotland’s two largest cities work together to try to spread the benefits from tourism across the central belt.
Tourism secretary Fiona Hyslop said: “It is imperative Scotland stays in the single market and continues to benefit from the free movement of persons, enabling businesses to recruit and retain the staff which will stimulate economic growth.”
The Moffat centre is the UK’S largest university-based consultancy and research centre for tourism and travel market research and business development.