‘No Deal’ is grim but we must be prepared

Prime Minister has to ensure the government has a plan for every eventuality, including the unthinkable

Cabinet reshuffles are one of the few times that a Prime Minister can openly exert authority on their party. Simply moving a minister to another portfolio can signal that a career is on the way down, or up.

This week’s shuffle of the pack by Theresa May hasn’t been epic. Instead much of the controversy surrounds not a person but a position – the so-called new “Minister for No Deal”.

Reports suggest Mrs May will create the role to “provide regular updates on preparations for leaving the EU without a trade deal”. The position will be based in the Department for Exiting the European Union alongside David Davis, the Brexit Secretary.

Simply giving the No Deal option a higher profile is likely to inflame Conservatives desperately urging the Prime Minister to reject such an outcome. And it has already prompted reaction from other parties with some viewing it as an openly adversarial approach.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said such a move would show that the “views of hardline Tory Brexiteers are more important to the PM than the interests of the country”, while Lib Dem leader Vince Cable added: “The government should not even be considering leaving the EU with no deal – that is the worst of all possible options.”

The Minister for No Deal is likely to be Steve Baker. Not a household name in London or Brussels or elsewhere. In reality, Mr Baker has already been doing the job for some time but without his name on the door. He is unlikely to change government policy – for such a position is more about appeasing the 60 or so “hard Brexit” MPS in the Tory party.

It is also arguable that Mrs May is quietly telling the EU she is ready to walk away from the Brexit talks if she is not offered a good deal on the future UK-EU trade relationship. However, this remains an unlikely option as the PM has signalled through both words and deeds that she wants a deal with the EU bloc.

A No Deal would be a catastrophic option for the UK, but preparing and understanding that scenario fully is wise – both in political and economic terms.

Brexit remains a negotiation and while both sides would prefer a deal – and understand it is in their best interests – the outcome is far from certain. Mrs May would be wrong to compound the error of a No Deal outcome by being ill-prepared for what it might bring.