£20bn boost for the NHS is buying Boris Johnson’s loyalty – and you’re paying, writes Paris Gourtsoyannis
put back on the table in exchange for a trade deal, as it sees the UK in its weakest position since the referendum. Instead of going to Brussels next week with a Brexit white paper, which the government can’t agree on, May will be holding a cabinet away day where she’ll expect Brexiteers to accept whatever it takes to get a deal.
Binding Johnson & Co to the government may work as a short-term measure to try limp over the Brexit line against the odds. But it carries long-term consequences that will hit the moment the Chancellor stands up to deliver his Budget in November.
Conservatives have already gambled away much of their credibility as stewards of the economy thanks to Brexit. Hiking taxes and increasing borrowing while claiming the cost will be met by a nonexistent Brexit dividend risks sacrificing what’s left of that reputation.
Going into the next election with both main parties promising higher spending, will voters reward Conservatives for putting up their taxes? Tearing up the bible of conservatism moves debate on to comfortable territory for Jeremy Corbyn, and lowers the cost of voting Labour.
Meanwhile, the Tories are desperately trying to become relevant to young voters again as their base shrinks through demographic attrition. Most of the working age population voted to Remain, while most of the retired population voted to Leave. How do they imagine raising taxes on the young to collect a “Brexit dividend” that pays for health care for the old will play?
Downing Street knows that after being told as much by tabloids for decades, Leavers will believe being in the EU cost the UK money, whatever the evidence. Having the £350m pledge argued about will only help cement that in their minds.
But losing the next election at a cost of £20bn a year would be a high price to pay for Johnson’s loyalty.