Brian Monteith: A ‘new’ party won’t succeed at Westminster

Voters are already becoming exasperated with politicians refusing to accept the referendum result, writes Brian Monteith

Tomorrow the House of Commons breaks up for the summer recess, and it cannot come soon enough for Theresa May and her beleaguered government.

A week ago the Leader of the House, Andrea Leadsom, toyed with the idea of pressing for the recess to start early – anything to avoid prolonging the febrile atmosphere that now occupies the House as members plot against their leaders; Tory rebels from all sides scheming against May’s worst-ofall-worlds Chequers agreement

– or Labour moderates who have lost patience with Jeremy Corbyn’s ambivalence towards antisemitism and contorted positions on Brexit. Only the prospect of a likely government defeat over such callous government manipulation to silence unhappy MPS brought the withdrawal of the proposal.

Now some MPS look set to continue their rebellious talk over the summer holidays, ranging from discussions about establishing more cross-party attacks on the minority Conservative Government to going as far as launching a centrist party – both initiatives being part of the continued attempts by Remain supporters to reject the EU referendum result and reverse the Brexit decision.

Both developments would, I believe, be doomed to failure.

There can be no doubting the government’s majority is on a knife edge. An amendment rejecting the customs union drafted by the European Reform Group led by Jacob Rees-mogg and accepted by the government only won by six votes after 12 Tories rebelled but five Labour MPS broke ranks and went the other way. Another two government/ ERG amendments won by only three votes. Lib Dems Vince Cable and Tim Farron were absent on those, which would have narrowed the victory to only one. One Tory Europhile amendment backing the use of EU medicine regulations triumphed against the government whip simply because the Labour Brexiteers that had helped the government previously did not believe it important enough an issue to rebel over.

When MPS return in September Ian Paisley Jnr, a pro-brexit DUP member, will be suspended for 30 sitting days, putting the government’s majority at even greater risk.

So it makes sense for Remainers to coordinate across parties – but it is a high-risk strategy, not just for them personally but for democracy too.

There is evidence that politicians failing to accept the referendum result by subverting Brexit entirely or seeking to deliver a deal that is Brexit in name only is increasingly exasperating the public.

Yesterday a Sunday Times Yougov poll showed 38 per cent support for a new pro-brexit party and a further 24 per cent willing to support a “farright anti-immigration, anti-islam” party – with one in three in favour of an anti-brexit party. The polling also showed support for May’s Chequers plan was only 11 per cent, while Boris Johnson was identified as the only Tory offering the possibility of defeating Corbyn, both men tying on 38 per cent. When asked who would negotiate the best Brexit deal, Johnson came first with 48 per cent with Corbyn trailing badly on 20 per cent – even Nigel Farage (27 per cent) and Donald Trump (24 per cent) polled higher.

The problem for Remain campaigners is that, while defeating the government to dilute its already soft Brexit Chequers plan is possible, it could deliver a stalemate that provokes a leadership chal-