Prospectus flaws

The ‘These Islands’ think tank report casts a critical eye over the SNP Growth Commission economic prospectus for an independent Scotland and shows how it started with a view that leaving the UK must be a good thing and then set out to selectively use “evidence” to prove it (“Growth Comm is si on ‘strengthensuk’ s case’”, 23 July).

In a nutshell, the Growth Commission owned up to the knowingly unrealistic oil revenue assumptions that underpinned the 2014 case for Scottish independence, but simply replaced that with overly optimistic economic growth figures. This was justified by the simple economic sleight of hand of using growth figures from a selection of the best-performing small country economies and leaving out the poorer performers.

That approach would be fine to create ambitious aspirations, but is deeply flawed if used, as the Growth Commission does, to justify their own underlying assumptions.

The ‘These Islands’ critique recognises many positive ideas about how to engender growth that are included in the Growth Commission analysis,

but points out how most could be readily pursued by a Scotland still in the UK.

One of the glaring shortcomings of the Growth Commission’s economic case is how, despite highlighting the downsides it sees in Brexit, it omits any analysis of how, when and on what terms an

independent Scotland would rejoin the EU. Equally, the Growth Commission shies away from any proper assessment of the high public spending that is the main driver of our fiscal deficit.

The ‘These Islands’ analysis shows the SNP’S Growth Commission has not delivered the

claimed honest economic analysis of independence but instead has simply continued the SNP tradition of primarily building the foundations of the case for independence on wishful thinking whilst ignoring inconvenient harsh realities such as the real level of austerity required to get our economy into a sustainable position and ready to meet EU joining criteria.

KEITH HOWELL

West Linton, Peeblesshire