Sturgeon may yet help deliver second EU vote

Backing for a People’s Vote without the caveat of Indyref2 appears a sensible position politically

Senior SNP figures yesterday danced quite the jig over the subject of referendums. As the party’s autumn conference kicked off in Glasgow, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said nationalist MPS at Westminster would “undoubtedly” back a second vote on membership of the European Union if that became an option.

The SNP’S leader in the Commons, Ian Blackford, had a slightly different take. In a interview on Sky News, Mr Blackford said that a so-called Peoples Vote on Brexit should mean Scots were also given the opportunity to decide again whether they wish Scotland to remain independent. Meanwhile, SNP MP Joanna Cherry suggested that independence could be achieved without a referendum but through a “democratic event”.

Intriguing though this might sound, and with the greatest of respect to Ms Cherry, the SNP’S commitment to achieving independence through a referendum remains steadfast. If the matter is to be decided by any “democratic event”, it will be a referendum.

And so we return to Mr Blackford’s position. His caveated support for a second EU vote makes (a degree of ) sense – why wouldn’t nationalists try to advance their position whenever an opportunity arises?

But making support for a People’s Vote conditional on Indyref2 could get rather messy. It is a plan that would risk creating even greater division than we now see in Scottish politics. A great many Scots who voted to Remain in the EU stay opposed to independence and Mr Blackford’s plan simply doesn’t recognise that fact.

The First Minister’s position, then, is – we believe – the preferable one. It is certainly the most sensible, politically. If there is a prospect of a People’s Vote and it is thwarted by the nationalists because they do not get their wish for a second independence referendum, the SNP would find it difficult to escape the charge that it had assisted in delivering the hard Brexit Ms Sturgeon insists her party does not want.

Regardless of which position the SNP adopts, the subject of a second independence referendum is academic. The reality is that, the government at Westminster will have no compunction about rejecting any referendum plans the SNP might propose.

Nicola Sturgeon and her party may yet play a part in delivering a second vote on membership of the EU but the power to restage an independence referendum may still remain out of her reach.