60% of Scots would vote ‘remain’ in new indyref
● Change from Yes/no to Leave or Remain would boost support for Union, poll shows ● Backing for SNP on the rise with party set to increase its seats at Westminster
Scots would vote against independence by a wide margin if they were asked whether to leave or remain in the United Kingdom, a landmark poll has found.
The poll’s release comes as Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May are set for showdown talks, with the UK speeding towards an uncertain Brexit conclusion.
The First Minister will meet opposition leaders at Westminster today in a bid to build a united front against the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal, promising a tense encounter with the Prime Minister in Downing Street.
However, the meeting depends on other political forces, with the threat of a possible vote of no-confidence by her own MPS continuing to hang over Mrs May.
Ms Sturgeon said last night: “Brexit must not be a false choice between the deal the Prime Minister has presented and the no-deal outcome which even members of her own Cabinet now say would be disastrous.”
The Survation poll, commissioned by a pro-union group, found that if a referendum were held now, 60 per cent of Scottish voters aged 16 and over would choose to stay in the UK and just 40 per cent would choose to leave, once the don’t knows are removed.
Among voters aged 18 and over the margin is even wider, with 67 per cent voting to remain in the UK and just 33 per cent choosing to leave, again once don’t knows are removed.
The findings represent one of the highest levels of support for staying in the UK of any poll conducted since the 2014 referendum.
However, polls suggest Brexit could boost support for independence, particularly if there is a chaotic exit from the EU.
The margin in favour of staying in the UK narrows to 57-43 if the UK leaves the EU with a deal and is just
52-48 if the country leaves without a deal. A total of 31 per cent of respondents said UK membership of the EU was more important than Scotland remaining part of the UK, compared to 22 per cent who put the UK first and 36 per cent who said the two Unions were equally important.
Pamela Nash, chief executive of Scotland in Union, the campaign group that commissioned the poll, said: “This bombshell poll shows that a huge majority of Scots want to remain in the UK and are turned off by Nicola Sturgeon’s desperate attempts to use Brexit to break up Britain. Voters know that we are better off as part of the UK and it makes sense to remain with our oldest friends, neighbours and allies rather than divide us in the name of nationalism.
“The Nationalists will stop at nothing until Scotland is separated from the UK. That’s why they are weaponising Brexit in the hope of boosting support for independence.
“But our trade with the rest of the UK is worth four times our trade with the EU. Why put our economy and jobs at risk?”
Ms Nash added: “This poll reveals how the SNP’S tactics have backfired and shows that people in Scotland would vote to remain in the UK with or without a Brexit deal in place.
“However, we know the Nationalists won’t stop campaigning, so we need to continue campaigning as well to ensure the voices of the majority of Scots are heard.
“Whatever your views on Brexit, independence is not the answer.”
The SNP said the findings made clear that Brexit was forcing Scots to reconsider their place in the UK. “It’s clear that Brexit is drawing more and more people towards the opportunities of independence as Scotland’s interests continue to be sidelined by Westminster,” SNP depute leader Keith Brown said.
“And a majority are confident that an independent Scotland could take its place at Europe’s top table.
“With crucial days ahead as we hurtle towards Brexit, the SNP will continue to stand up to the Tories and fight for what’s best for Scotland’s future.”
As the Scottish Government prepares to restart the campaign for independence in earnest once the Brexit deal is settled, the findings will spark a debate about what question voters should be asked in any new referendum on Scotland’s constitutional future.
Polling agency Survation used a wording based on the 2016 EU referendum, asking people how they would vote in response to the question “should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?”
In 2014, the Edinburgh Agreement between the Scottish and UK governments that set the terms for the independence referendum gave Holyrood control over the franchise and referendum question, on the understanding that voters would be presented with a single question.
David Cameron, the thenprime minister, is widely believed to have feared a twoquestion
referendum preferred by Alex Salmond, asking voters whether they supported “devolution max” with sweeping new powers for the Scottish Parliament.
The existing UK government has said it would not grant permission under the Scotland Act for a new independence referendum.
Mrs May insists that voters made their choice in 2014
and, while the Brexit process is ongoing, “now is not the time” for more constitutional upheaval. However, last week the First Minister said she would unveil plans for a new push towards independence “in the not-too-distant future”.
Polling expert John Curtice said the results showed most Scots want “the best of both worlds”, with greater political autonomy while remaining
in the UK. The Survation poll also confirmed the SNP’S continued strength, with voters set to send more Nationalist MPS to Westminster in the event of a snap election.
Support for the SNP is at 39 per cent, up 2 per cent from the 2017 general election. The two main Unionist parties would lose ground compared with the last election, with the Conservatives on 26
per cent, down 2 per cent, and Labour on 24 per cent, down 3 per cent. The Liberal Democrats would pick up one point, putting them on 8 per cent.
Analysis by Mr Curtice suggests that result would give the SNP 42 MPS at Westminster, picking up five seats from Labour and two from the Conservatives. The Lib Dems would remain on four MPS.
Mr Brown said: “People are continuing to put their trust in the SNP to stand up for Scotland.
“We command a 13-point lead over the Tories, who are consumed by the complete and utter chaos of Brexit.
“And Labour aren’t seen as a credible alternative. That’s why they’re languishing even further.
“It seems this poll was commissioned by our opponents to land a political blow on the SNP, whereas it’s had the exact opposite effect. These figures make extremely encouraging reading for the independence movement while leaving the Tory and Labour parties extremely downhearted.”
Survation questioned 1,013 people online between 9-13 November.
Assoonastheeu referendum result was announced, Nicola Sturgeon predictably used it to revive her campaign for Scotland to leave the UK.
Nationalists have not stopped campaigning since, using every twist and turn in the Brexit saga in a desperate attempt to boost support for the break-up of Britain.
The SNP has no interest in getting a good Brexit deal or even stopping Brexit – it wants chaos in the hope that Remain voters will swing behind independence in the belief that Scotland could easily stay in the EU. It’s a cynical tactic that EU Remain voters must always remember: don’t let Nicola Sturgeon use your vote to break up the UK.
The new poll from Survation, published in The Scotsman today, shows that Ms Sturgeon’s strategy is backfiring.
If a contest was held tomorrow,
60 per cent of people in Scotland would vote to remain in the UK.
In fact, 28 per cent of former
Yes voters would now vote for Scotland to remain in the UK.
This matches up with evidence that we hear first-hand at campaign events throughout the country. Contrary to SNP spin, there are many who backed the
Yes campaign in 2014 who no longer support independence.
There are several reasons for their change of heart – not least the recent experience of the oil price crash, which would have exposed an independent Scotland to economic catastrophe and proved that Alex Salmond’s White Paper was a work of fiction.
But Brexit – whether you support it or not – has demonstrated the intense complexities of leaving a political union.
It has proved difficult – and it remains to be seen if impossible – to secure a divorce deal with the EU, which in historical terms is a relatively new organisation. Just imagine what it would be like disentangling us from a 300-year-old union in which we are considerably more entwined.
Alex Salmond’s White Paper fancifully claimed a divorce deal could be in place within 18 months. The SNP can never again peddle that lie.
But more than anything, what we are hearing time and time again is that Brexit has brought home to voters just how precious being part of the UK is. The chaos of the Brexit negotiations highlights the stability and security we enjoy as part of the UK. Few voters want to be out of both the EU and the UK.
If in today’s world the UK did not exist, we would need to invent it. So, it comes as little surprise that if a second independence referendum was called after we leave the EU, this poll shows that voters would still choose to remain in the UK – with or without a Brexit deal in place.
The wording in the poll was chosen deliberately. In 2014, we were offered a yes/no option and the no campaign won by around 400,000 votes. Ms Sturgeon insisted it was a “once-in-a-generation” referendum.
But she used the 2016 EU referendum to revive her campaign – a contest in which the Electoral Commission advised that voters should be offered a remain/leave option.
The independent experts came to the conclusion that a yes/no option question is not the best option as it cannot be considered neutral when reflecting only one outcome in the question.
Let’s be clear, there should not be a second independence referendum – it is not wanted and would damage Scotland – but if there was one, the precedent of using a remain/leave question with both options in the question has now clearly been set. The Yes campaign will have to become the Leave campaign.
But while the poll makes for encouraging reading, those of us who believe in the UK must not be complacent.
Just over a third of voters said Brexit makes them more likely to support Scotland leaving the UK. And while pro-uk parties have 58 per cent of support in Westminster voting intentions, it is still of concern that the SNP remains the largest single party.
In recent weeks, senior Nationalist figures have floated the idea that a majority of Scottish MPS at the next election would be a mandate for independence.
It’s reckless and dangerous talk, but it hasn’t been dismissed by the SNP leadership.
SNP strategists know they are failing to turn most Scots towards independence, so are exploring other ways to break up the UK. Their underhand tactics cannot go unchecked.
That’s why Scotland in Union will be campaigning hard in the weeks ahead to remind voters that whatever your views on Brexit, independence is not the answer.
A separate Scotland would not automatically be in the EU and would face a long and painful application process, with absolutely no guarantee of entry.
Like any club, there are rules which apply to new members.
EU member states are expected to have a budget deficit of no more than 3 per cent of GDP. The latest official figures put Scotland’s deficit at a whopping 7.9 per cent – four times higher than the UK. The only way to get that down is by hiking taxes and slashing spending on already-stretched public services such as schools and hospitals – meaning deeper, harmful austerity.
All member countries must also commit to eventual membership of the euro, making any suggestion of financial independence nonsense as monetary policy would be handed to Frankfurt.
Why harm our economy by leaving the UK – which is worth four times as much as our trade with the EU?
By remaining in the UK, families are better off by the equivalent of £7,500.
It simply makes no sense to walk away from our oldest friends, neighbours, trading partners and allies. That’s why the majority of people in Scotland still want to remain in the United Kingdom. l Pamela Nash is chief executive of Scotland in Union
Unionists will take heart from new Survation poll, but Brexit still poses a threat, writes Pamela Nash