Long dry summers and wetter winters projected

There could be a 50:50 chance of each summer being at least as hot as that of 2018 by the middle of the century, according to new UK climate projection figures released yesterday.

And the first update of the projections for ten years also showed that without drastic action on climate change, a high emissions scenario would be likely to see an increase in summer temperatures of between 0.9C and 5.4C , with a 0.7C to 4.2C rise being likely in winter. But with the effects of the past year’s near-drought conditions knocking on into farmers’ crop yields and winter feeding regimes, the UK Climate Predictions 2018 which were released yesterday showed that rainfall figures were also likely to alter dramatically.

The statistics, drawn up by the Met Office, in partnership with Defra and the devolved administrations showed that under a high emission scenario, by 2070 summer rainfall could drop to close to half its current levels – while winter rainfall could increase by more than a third.

Speaking at the launch of the new projections yesterday, Environment Secretary Michael Gove said that urgent action was needed to tackle climate change and prepare for future extreme weather.

“It is clear that the planet and its weather patterns are changing before our

0 Drought conditions are likely to become more common

eyes. We know, more than ever before, the urgency of acting.”

However, he added that the UK had slashed emissions by more than 40 per cent since 1990, and today marks the 10th anniversary of its Climate Change Act – the world’s first legally binding legislation to tackle climate change.

But speaking last, week NFU president Andrew Mccornick struck out at the flack which the farming industry was subjected to on the issue recently.

Criticising the simplistic formulas which were often used to measure the industry’s emissions – which singularly failed to take account of the many environmental benefits offered by farming – he said they failed to paint an accurate picture.

Commenting specifically on the livestock sector – which had been the focus of criticism and recently saw a call for a cut of 50 per cent in the country’s sheep and cattle numbers – he said that not only were the

emissions based on figures gleaned from feedlot systems which weren’t used in the UK but they also failed to give any credit for carbon sequestration.

He said: “With Scotland’s management systems focusing on grass there is a huge amount of CO2 tied up in each acre each year – not only in the grass which our cattle and sheep graze on but also in the huge mass of organic matter and micro-flora in our soils.”

He said that with around 85 per cent of Scotland’s ground only suitable for growing grass and grazing, it was not only the most efficient way of using these resources but also often the only viable option.

“And that is why it is so important that we get the role played by farming in mitigating climate change recognised and to introduce future farm policy which results in the winwin situation of improving both farm productivity and the environment.”