What are the UK’S options?

Theresa May’s Brexit deal On 11 December, after five days of debate, MPS vote on Theresa May’s deal. Nearly 100 Conservative MPS oppose it. The UK government may be facing a twoto-one defeat. If it passes, a transition phase gives negotiators 21 months to build a new trade and security relationship. In mid-2020, the EU would decide if a longer transition is needed and at the end of the year, whether the backstop keeps the UK in the customs union to stop a hard border in Ireland.

Canada plus

The preferred destination of Brexiteers; a trade deal based on one between Canada and the EU, with the addition of provisions covering financial services. However, it doesn’t meet Brussels demands on the Irish border.

No deal

The government must return with a new plan within 21 days of a ‘no’ from MPS. Financial markets would likely force Theresa May to do so sooner, provided she is still PM. Rejection would also see the deal sent back to EU leaders for review. MPS could be asked to vote again. But if there is no plan B, as London and Brussels say, the UK could leave without a deal, risking immediate economic consequences.

Norway Plus

A ‘soft Brexit’ alternative is based on Norway’s single market status as a member of the EEA and Efta, with the ‘plus’ of a customs relationship. PRO-EU ministers are said to have discussed the plan and it has support among opposition and Conservative MPS. But continued free movement makes it unacceptable to Brexiteers.

No Brexit

MPS could demand a second referendum on the EU, with an option to stay in, but it isn’t clear what options would be put to voters, or if a vote could be arranged without extending Article 50.