UK ‘unlikely to leave EU in March’

Britain is unlikely to leave the European Union on 29 March, the Economist Intelligence Unit has predicted.

The forecasting group said it expects the Prime Minister will lose the critical “meaningful vote” on her Brexit deal on Tuesday, and the Government will then be forced to request an extension to Article 50.

The EIU believes Brussels will agree to an exten- sion, meaning Britain will remain in the trade bloc beyond the planned exit date.

Crashing out of the EU without a deal is the least likely outcome, according to the forecast, which put the probability of a no-deal exit at 5 per cent.

Instead, the EIU said there was a 40 per cent chance Mrs May’s deal would eventually be approved by Parliament in a subsequent vote, after gaining further assurances from Brussels. And it predicted a 30 per cent probability of a second vote being called to break the political deadlock.

Danielle Haralambous, UK analyst at the EIU, said: “Time is simply running out, and we’re at a stage where Brexit can probably only happen in late March now in the unlikely event that Parliament approves Mrs May’s deal on January 15th, or if Parliament supports leaving without a deal.”