‘Simplistic’ views of farm productivity under attack

The belief held by some UK policy makers that “making life tougher” will weed out poorerperforming farmers and help raise productivity levels of those remaining has been described as “overly simplistic”.

Speaking at a round of spring seminars organised by farms consultants Andersons, director Richard King said that while it was widely reported that the UK farming industry was lagging behind its competitors – both in Europe and around the globe – removing or severely reducing farm support when the UK left the EU wouldn’t necessarily address the root of the problem.

“If times become tougher because of Brexit there is an assumption that this approach would get rid of the ‘worst’ farmers and help improve overall productivity – we are not so sure,” said King.

He said that there was a wide variation in the performance levels of UK producers – and that it seemed to be growing wider – and admitted that this couldn’t be entirely put down to differences in soil and climate: “In fact it is mostly down to drive.”

But, according to King, who revealed his organisation was estimating that support levels could fall by 40 per cent-50 per cent by 2030, many of those at the poorest achieving end of the spectrum would probably continue almost regardless of how their businesses were performing: “Basically they will continue to survive and somehow get by as they have done in the past.”

He said it was more likely that the more businessorientated sectors – where there was better knowledge and understanding of their output levels, costs and performance – would be the ones to take tough decisions: “And we would probably see those in the bracket that was just failing to make ‘average’ levels of income as one sector which might decide to move out and cut their losses.

“The other sector would be the ones which were out-performing many of their peers but who weren’t quite in the top bracket – and they might realise that their skills, drive and capital might reap better rewards if invested in another sector outside agriculture.”

Taking a look at the effects which the still uncertain Brexit might have on various sectors of the industry, Michael Haverty, senior agricultural economist with Andersons, said that traditional sheep and beef livestock farms could face a difficult future after the UK left the EU, especially if the UK adopted a liberal trade policy – and, as is expected, also reduced direct support payments.

But he warned that upland producers were likely to be the hardest hit.

He said that, as in all other sectors, there were some very good and progressive units operating in these areas.

“But if there is a change in market conditions and support arrangements then farmers in upland regions might have to accept that their income will have to come from a variety of sources and not just raising livestock,” said Haverty, who admitted that this might not be a “universally popular” message.

bhenderson@farming.co.uk