May’s last throw of the dice
●Desperate PM faces own MPS in bid to save deal ●Showdown as parliament votes on ‘soft Brexit’ ●DUP oppositon to ‘toxic’ proposal leaves her isolated
Theresa May will go before her MPS tonight in a desperate final bid to save her deal with Brussels at the same time as parliament votes on plans to impose a softer Brexit.
The Prime Minister will face the backbench 1922 Committee to appeal for loyalty as hardcore Brexiteers said they would not waver in opposing her deal.
But it will be too late to stop MPS starting the process of “indicative votes” this evening on alternative options for Brexit, which are set to include remaining in the single market and customs union, as well as putting the deal to the people in a second referendum, or cancelling the UK’S exit altogether.
In a historic vote on Monday night, MPS dealt a crushing blow to the government’s authority by voting to take control of the Commons order paper and the Brexit process, by 329 votes to 302.
Yesterday Mrs May’s one-time allies in the DUP also turned their backs on her, saying they would not be bullied into backing a “toxic” Brexit deal. After losing three more ministers on Monday night, Mrs May is braced for further Commons revolts today, with members of her Cabinet demanding free votes on the various Brexit options set to be presented.
No decision has yet been made on whether the indicative votes will be whipped, with a Downing Street spokesman refusing to comment on discussions among ministers on the issue at a two-hour Cabinet meeting yesterday. MPS will be asked to select which alternative Brexit options they support, with a “runoff ” ballot for the most popular proposals to be held on Monday.
With dozens of Tory Brexiteers still refusing to back the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal, tonight’s meeting of the 1922 Committee is expected to hear calls for Mrs May to stand down before the next phase of talks. The
Prime Minister’s official spokesman said it was “extremely unlikely” the deal would be put to MPS today, but a vote must be held this week in order to meet the terms set by the EU for the extension of Article 50 to 22 May.
Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom said the Prime Minister was having ongoing discussions “so that we can, if possible this week, approve the deal and guarantee Brexit”.
At Cabinet, Environment Secretary Michael Gove is reported to have called for a third vote on the deal to be held on Friday 29 March – the day the UK was originally intended to leave the EU – using symbolism in a bid to attract Brexiteers. Some critics of the government’s deal have switched their positions, facing the risk of a possible second EU referendum or the revocation of Article 50.
They include the chairman of the influential European Research Group, Jacob Reesmogg, who admitted that “the choice seems to be Mrs May’s deal or no Brexit”.
“I have always thought that no deal is better than Mrs May’s deal, but Mrs May’s deal is better than not leaving at all,” Mr Rees-mogg told the Conservativehome podcast. He added that Brexit may now be a “process rather than an event” and it could take time to fully break away from Brussels.
Former whip Michael Fabricant said he had reached the same “dreadful conclusion” on Mrs May’s deal and a new prime minister would be able to negotiate a “better and more distanced relationship” with the EU after Brexit.
Last night Boris Johnson hinted that he could be about to shift his position if a different prime minister took Brexit talks in a new direction.
He told a public meeting “I am not there yet” but offered to support the deal if it leads to a Canada-style trade deal between the UK and the EU.
However, there is little hope of Mrs May’s deal passing while it continues to be opposed by the DUP.
The party’s Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson said that he would prefer to see the UK forced into a longer Brexit delay, potentially until the end of the year, rather than vote for the Prime Minister’s “rotten deal”.
Writing in a daily newspaper, he said: “Even if we are forced into a one-year extension, we at least would have a say on the things which affect us during that time and would have the right to unilaterally decide to leave at the end of that oneyear period through the simple decision of not applying for a further extension.
He added: “There are some colleagues who I admire greatly and who have stood firmly with us in defending Northern Ireland who now take the view that the Withdrawal Agreement, even though it is a rotten deal, is better than losing Brexit.
“To them I say that, if the deal goes through, we have lost our right to leave the EU.”
SNP MP Joanna Cherry has submitted a motion calling for Article 50 to be revoked if a nodeal Brexit is looming.
The motion would require the government to hold a debate and vote two days before the UK’S exit date if a deal hasn’t been agreed. If MPS refuse to authorise nodeal, the Prime Minister would be required to halt Brexit by revoking Article 50.
The motion has been signed by 33 MPS including Conservative former attorney general Dominic Grieve, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable and all 11 members of The Independent Group.
Other proposals submitted by MPS include the so-called Kyle-wilson compromise, which would put any Brexit deal to a public vote. Conservative MP Nick Boles has put forward a proposal for the UK to join the European Free Trade Association.
Theresa May had hoped to avoid having to win MPS’ approval of her Brexit deal. And, to be fair, it’s fairly obvious why.
But the moment the UK Supreme Court established the primacy of parliamentary sovereignty – ironically sparking outrage from some Brexiteers – she should have realised she was now in a three-way negotiation, involving the British government, the European Union and MPS. All would ultimately need to sign up to any Brexit deal.
While the Prime Minister managed to reach agreement with Brussels, she singularly failed with MPS. Her deal has now suffered two landslide defeats as MPS on both sides of the argument refused to give in to the twin threats of “no deal” or “no Brexit”. No-one likes being forced to do something they don’t want to do and MPS are perhaps among the least likely to submit to this kind of treatment, given a high regard for your own judgment is a prerequisite for the job.
So the series of indicative votes in the Commons today – designed to find out what a majority of MPS want to happen – is a process that should have been carried out immediately after the last general election, either formally or informally. Mrs May needed to know what kind of a deal MPS would sign up to before negotiating it. We are now in the current mess because she failed to do so, in a shocking lapse which showed she did not understand the basic requirements of any leader – to have enough followers.
So reports that she has offered to resign if this will enable her deal to pass are understandable. But if hardline Brexiteers are prepared to back May’s deal because she has promised to quit, it simply shows how petty and personal the situation has become. MPS need to instead focus on the national interest and face reality.
There is no point in voting for a new deal the EU will not agree to. If they will not back May’s plan, they must come up with a viable alternative to no deal.
And facing reality applies to Remainers as well as Brexiteers, whose notions have been so fanciful that some are known as “unicorns”. If, even after today’s votes, MPS cannot make up their collective mind, a second referendum would be a fair way to resolve the situation. But if the Commons will not vote for one, Remainers need to realise Brexit is going to happen and ensure no deal is the unicorn that does not turn out to be real.