The Scotsman

Brexit is already costing UK economy £550 million a week

- Ravender Sembhy

Brexit has cost the British economy £550 million a week since the referendum as business investment dries up amid political paralysis in Westminste­r, a report has found.

Standard & Poor’s suggested that since the June 2016 vote, 3 per cent has been shaved off GDP.

That equates to “forgone economic activity” of £6.6 billion in each of the ten quarters since the referendum, or £66bn, the credit ratings agency said.

“The most visible effect has been the depreciati­on of the British pound, which

triggered an increase in inflation. The ultimate result was to erode household spending power.

“Household spending would have been considerab­ly stronger – in line with GDP – had the referendum not occurred,” S&P said in its publicatio­n, Countdown To Brexit: What Might Have Been For The UK Economy. It added that external trade did not see any significan­t boost from the pound’s collapse, contrary to claims from leading Brexit proponents that exports would be boosted.

S&P senior economist Boris Glass said: “Uncertaint­y over the shape and form Brexit will take has increasing­ly paralysed any forwardloo­king decision making.

“This is reflected in particular in a contractio­n of business investment in 2018.”

The analysis, based on the Doppelgang­er economic method, also shows that British-based businesses have “ventured well beyond the point of no return”, which will hammer the economy even harder.

“They have reorganise­d their business structure to comply with regulation and to safeguard unimpeded EU market access. This will also dampen growth while the economy adjusts to the new business environmen­t after Brexit, whether there is a deal or not.”

The findings are the latest in a series of Brexit impact assessment­s.

Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs estimated that £600m a week as been lost because of Brexit, and the Bank of England suggested a figure of around £40bn per year, or £800m per week, all significan­tly higher than the £350m a week the Leave campaign’s bus claimed would be saved by Brexit.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from United Kingdom