Brian Monteith: Don’t write off new Brexit Party in Scotland

Nigel Farage’s latest gambit could win backing from unionist and nationalist eurosceptics, says Brian Monteith

The Brexit Party has launched, and all the evidence suggests it shall complete a successful mission to change our political constellation – but will it land with any Scottish MEPS?

The tendency in Scotland is to write off sympathy for Brexit but, just as I warned in this column five years ago, there is a substantial eurosceptic minority looking for a voice. The last time there were EU elections in 2014 Scotland returned a Ukip MEP with over 140,000 votes and 10.5 per cent of the vote. On 23 May, when the European elections that were not meant to take place will be held, the Brexit Party should pick up that seat if it offers a rational and inoffensive home for that existing support. Indeed it could do even better if there is a significant fall in Conservative or Labour support.

In England and Wales the Conservative Party is already on its way to a collapse. Reports from members out on the stump for council elections on 2 May already make for harrowing reading back at Tory HQ with tales of doors being slammed in canvassers’ faces, donations drying up and members resigning from the party. What had been a trickle of dissent over first, the Prime Minister’s Chequers betrayal and then her surrender by way of the EU’S Withdrawal Agreement, became a torrent of protests when the UK did not leave the EU on 29 March as promised incessantly by Theresa May.

Over a hundred (and growing) Conservative council candidates and Tory association chairmen have written to the press warning of what could become an existential shock to the party’s actual survival. Social media is full of Tweets and posts about supporters never voting Conservative again so long as Theresa May is leader and the party

does not honour its commitment to deliver Brexit.

The latest UK polling for the European Parliament elections makes shocking reading for Theresa May’s Conservative Party. A Yougov survey shows Labour ahead on 24 per cent with Conservatives on 16 per cent and the Brexit Party – even before it had officially launched on 15 per cent.

Ukip is below on 14 per cent and the Liberal Democrats slipping to 8 per cent, and the Independent Group formed of Remain defectors from the Labour and Conservatives (and now called Change UK) on 7 per cent. Snp/plaid Cymru polled 6 per cent.

One opinion survey is, however, only a snapshot; further evidence is necessary to identify trends that suggest a credible consistency in support. Unfortunately for the Conservatives a second poll by Opinium provided that the day after with again Labour first (29 per cent) and Conservatives second (17 per cent) – with Ukip third (13 per cent) and the Brexit Party already fourth (12 per cent). The Liberal Democrats came in at 10 per cent, Greens and SNP both 6 per cent and Change UK on 4 per cent.

I expect the freshness of the Brexit Party and the pulling power of its charismatic yet Marmite leader Nigel Farage to help it grow, to the cost of Ukip support. Candidates will be important, but the trend is highly likely for the Brexit Party to take over where Ukip has left off.

Importantly, note how in both polls if the support for Ukip and Brexit Party are put together it is larger than that of the Conservatives, totalling 29 per cent in Yougov and 25 per cent in Opinium. The Tories are in dire trouble, with still five weeks to go this can only get worse for Theresa May. The Daily