Independence dream remains just that as doubts grow on Sturgeon’s commitment

Nicola Sturgeon has reconfirmed that after the Easter recess she will make her much-heralded statement on independence. She may well also be facing her most challenging party conference later this month. Her dream since a teenager has been independence – she admits that, for her, it transcends everything, but more than a few among the party faithful now doubt the depth of her commitment.

The SNP’S independence White Paper, now widely recognised as stronger on spin than substance, grew separatist support and so her profile and popularity also grew, but not enough to make her dream come true. And she has struggled almost ever since.

True, on the back of Alex Salmond’s efforts she performed well in the 2015 elections but Ms Sturgeon’s obsession with separatism saw her lose seats in Holyrood in 2016 and Westminster in 2017.

Brexit hasn’t delivered for her as she’d wished. Opinion polls show most realise the binary choice she proffers between Scotland within the UK or the EU is false. Ms Sturgeon’s own Growth Commission report admits it’ll take Scotland a decade or more of austerity in the form of higher taxation and public services cuts to meet stringent EU entry requirements. She has even been outmanoeuvred by Theresa May, with Downing Street’s unwavering “now is not the time” for Indyref2.

Ms Sturgeon now seeks, in an EU People’s Vote, a precedent for a second independence referendum, yet this means any Indyref2 outcome would also require a confirmatory vote. And still opinion polls on independence are against her as voters show they’re sick of relentless constitutional turmoil. Meanwhile, she is much criticised for her administration’s apparent neglect of its public services remit while focusing on separatism.

So now Ms Sturgeon’s party starts to split with some daring to turn against her. Some in the SNP don’t care about opinion polls and the pointlessness of an unofficial vote – they want another shot at separating Scotland from the rest of the UK, irrespective of their chances, just as the UK has been separated from the EU.

Admittedly chaos at Westminster has boosted her standing in opinion polls and that of her party – but growing 45 to 50.1 per cent still proves illusive. At the conference, Ms Sturgeon may have the unenviable task of telling the party faithful they must wait. Another snap general election might just return a minority Labour administration, needing SNP support. Ms Sturgeon would hope for Indyref2 on her timetable as a quid pro quo but why should Jeremy Corbyn cave into her? Who else is the SNP going to support in Westminster but Labour?

So, barring a miracle, it’s game off for Indyref2 until after the next Holyrood election in 2021 – and only then if a nationalist majority is returned. Inevitably Brexit chaos will eventually ease, whatever the outcome, and may start to turn positive – will a possible referendum in, say, 2023 be too late for the nationalist leader to capitalise on the nation’s frustration with Westminster’s current behaviour?

She will have some explaining to do at her conference if she’s going to hold her party together. Meanwhile, her independence dream remains just that – a dream.

MARTIN REDFERN Woodcroft Road, Edinburgh