SCOTTISH PERSPECTIVE

We have come to a point where the consequences of the next move could well be ‘all fall down’, writes Bill Jamieson

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In the UK we have reached a cataclysmic point. Here is stalemate after an interminable game of chess where the next moves would bring an inescapable collapse for either side. The knights and bishops are in terminal peril, the Queen trapped, the King as good as check-mated and the pawns paralysed.

“Just get it over with!” cry the spectators, desperate for resolution. But who dares move for fear of defeat? The Brexit process is as deadlocked as ever. The Prime Minister cannot risk a deal with Labour without a devastating split in her own party. Labour cannot reach to rescue her without an equally destructive division.

Collapse and defeat loom with every move. The Conservatives cannot mount a campaign for the imminent Euro elections because they are hopelessly divided and, in any case, do not believe the UK should be taking part. With two weeks to go, the party has no clear manifesto.

Tory MPS fear to replace Theresa May because any imminent move would open deeper divisions, destroy any remaining prospects for her Withdrawal Agreement, and because there is no clear successor around which they can unite – even assuming anyone can be found willing to take on the job.

Mrs May could embark on yet another desperate mission to Brussels, begging for some amendment to the Withdrawal Deal. But prospects for success here are remote.

“Hold a second referendum,” many loudly argue. But are the calls likely to be as loud if the Brexit Party, riding a tsunami of public frustration, triumphs in the Euro elections?

Call a general election to clear the air, urge some. But Conservatives would be risking a nationwide wipe-out, and Labour is far from certain that even in these circumstances it can secure a victory. The ‘Remainer’ vote is split between the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Change UK. Another hung parliament would be a nightmare outcome.

Here in Scotland the SNP, helped by Scottish Conservative opposition to a Brexit position, would be almost certain to gain

support for its pro-eu stance and agitate for a second independence referendum. A constitutional division, once thought reconciled for a generation, would be ripped open. If the cacophony of voter discontent was not already enough, now add a renewed battle for Scottish independence, no less divisive than the one fought in 2013.

How tempting, then, for the PM to continue to play for time, to shuffle back and forth on the last available square. She could obfuscate and delay, postponing any date of her departure until the autumn. But the public’s patience is already stretched to breaking point. Such an option would risk an even greater loss of national support. Little wonder in all of this that the mortar holding the brickwork

of the UK together is seen to loosen and crumble. The reputation and standing of the UK internationally is already diminished, while at home public loyalty to once enduring institutions is being seriously frayed. When the forces that divide us prevail over those that hold us together, who now would rally to the cause of a “United Kingdom”?

Thus we have come to the point where the consequences of the next move could well be ‘All Fall Down’. We are beyond the point where a change in Prime Minister or a general election would resolve matters. Caught in a death-spiral, a formal Conservative Party split is a real possibility, as is a break-up of the two-party system. Time for a new game, surely, to wipe the board

and start afresh. But it is unlikely to stop with a reshuffle of the current parliamentary elite. A new broom will need to sweep clean – and that includes a clear-out of the senior civil servants and officials who have treated Brexit as a damage limitation exercise and sought to keep change to a minimum. It is not just the Prime Minister’s woeful lack of leadership and general unfitness for office, but the reactionary, self-serving cluster of advisers and officials who surround her who also have to go. ‘All fall down’ well covers what is needed.