Scottish Leave voters have not gone away

Labour and Conservatives can blame only themselves as voters appear set to desert them in European vote

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s reaction to defeat in referendums is not, we are bound to say, entirely consistent.

When just shy of 45 per cent of Scots voted yes to independence in September 2014, this minority was held up by Ms Sturgeon as evidence support for the break-up of the UK was substantial and growing. But when 38 per cent of voters north of the Border backed Leave in the EU referendum of June 2016, the First Minister’s view was that their opinion was of no importance.

Ms Sturgeon’s political narrative – that the result of the EU vote showed Scotland wildly out of step with the rest of the UK – required her to treat the views of almost twofifths of Scots as utterly irrelevant. Those voters may be about to reassert their presence on our national debate.

A new poll on voting intentions in this Thursday’s European Parliamentary Elections shows support for former Ukip leader Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party has surged in Scotland. The SNP currently leads the field on 38 per cent, but a fifth of Scots intend to back Mr Farage’s project, while the Conservatives and Labour sit in joint fourth, behind the Green Party.

A majority of Scots may still favour membership of the EU but we should not pretend to ourselves that a great many people don’t hold the opposing view. Brexit was the preference of four out of ten Scots voters in 2016 and we should not expect the result of Thursday’s vote, expressed through support for either Leave of Remain supporting parties, to reflect a dramatic change from that position.

Both the Tories and Labour appear to be paying the price of their respective – equally chaotic – positions on Brexit. This is hardly surprising. Ruth Davidson may be a socially-liberal centrist who campaigned enthusiastically for a Remain but she is now committed to supporting a Brexit, the shape of which is currently being dictated by the Tory right. Meanwhile, Labour, under career-long Eurosceptic Jeremy Corbyn makes confusing and inconsistent claims about a second referendum. Some senior figures insist a “people’s vote” is a necessity while others, including the leader, are clearly far less enthusiastic.

Parties with clear and simple messages on Brexit stand to do well on Thursday. Labour and the Conservatives, on the other hand, face punishment. They have only themselves to blame.