A Johnson premiership will be one of surprises
Pulling off any of the possible routes to his party’s electoral salvation is not beyond him, writes Brian Monteith
Few would have thought Rory Mcilroy would miss the cut at Royal Portrush of all places, but surprises can come where they are least expected. So it is possible that, while Boris Johnson can be expected to become our next prime minister, he could yet – surprisingly – deliver a Brexit by 31 October when all his opponents in other parties and critics in his own say it is not possible.
The trick may yet be that entirely separate field of battle – defining what actually a true Brexit means – for it is in redefining Brexit that Johnson has his best chance of winning parliamentary approval. By using his optimistic and positive way with words that Jeremy Hunt comes nowhere close to, Johnson might just sweet-talk Parliament into accepting a bastardised version of Theresa May’s appalling Withdrawal Agreement before Halloween.
Much of Johnson’s focus on delivering Brexit has been to rule out acceptance of the Irish backstop – the legal trap that ensures the UK does not diverge from EU laws, standards and trading arrangements. The possibility of the EU finding a new form of words that would allow him to claim the backstop will in time be removed – and thus put a zombie-version of May’s proposed treaty to a parliamentary vote – should not be discounted. It would still sell out the fishermen, hand over our military forces to the EU army and keep us liable for hundreds of billions of contingent liabilities, but it would be Boris’s Brexit.
Overnight, Tory MPS walking through the “aye” lobbies would become the living dead if they fell for such a ruse. Come a future election, the public could be expected to put such soulless creatures out of their misery by handing their seats over to real Brexit supporters.
The EU, including the presidentelect of the commission, protests it will not reopen negotiations, a public stance that is to be expected. This
might change because the commercial advantages for the EU make it sensible to, but so far the political imperative of demonstrating any country leaving the EU will be punished has triumphed over economic rationality.
Faced with an intransigent EU and an out-of-touch Commons, Johnson could yet find asking the British people for a mandate through an early general election his preferred route. It would be a fine and risky calculation to make that requires other options to be considered.
The two alternatives to calling for an early general election that might secure him a working majority are, first, to find parliamentary manoeuvres that ensure the UK leaves the EU with the many managed sidedeals on aviation, road haulage and citizenship etc – or, second, the EU recognises its own economic interest and is willing to accept a GATT XXIV accord that continues the trade arrangements while a Free Trade Agreement is thrashed-out.
The first alternative is possible because the UK’S legal position by default is that, if the Prime Minister does not ask for an extension of the current Article 50 membership period, we will automatically leave at 11pm on 31 October. Politically all Johnson has to do is survive in post without requesting an extension to achieve Brexit. If he is instructed by MPS to request a further extension it would require legislation to force him – or the threat of passing two consecutive motions of no-confidence in his government that would force a general election.
By making a vote of confidence a three-line whip, he could then replace any Tory MPS that rebelled by removing the party whip, thus denying them the possibility of being Conservative candidates. This ploy would not work against those rebels that have said they will not seek re-election or are willing to risk Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM rather than see Brexit become reality.
The second alternative is viable