What’s next in the saga?

The government has vowed the UK will still leave the EU by Halloween, despite the Prime Minister failing to secure backing in the Commons for his Brexit deal on Saturday. Here’s what’s coming next:

When will Mr Johnson next try to get his Brexit deal through Parliament?

The government is set to bring the Withdrawal Agreement Bill – the legislation needed for Brexit – to the Commons this week. The Leader of the Commons, Jacob Rees-mogg, said the government wanted to hold another meaningful vote on Mr Johnson’s deal today and would make an emergency business statement to achieve this.

Does Mr Johnson have the numbers to achieve a Commons majority for his Brexit deal?

In the current hung Parliament, much will hinge on the PM securing support from Brexiteer Tories who voted down Theresa May’s deal on three occasions, plus the 21 former Conservatives who lost the whip over the issue of a no deal Brexit. The DUP is strongly opposed to Mr Johnson’s deal due to the arrangements for Northern Ireland, so the backing of enough Labour MPS in Leave-supporting seats will also be vital. Forecasts suggest the numbers are on a knife edge.

How would any future ‘meaningful vote’ on the PM’S Brexit deal work? Opposition MPS are likely to put forward amendments to any government motion to approve Mr Johnson’s Brexit deal to try to “shape” Brexit. This is likely to include trying to hold a second EU referendum, securing a future customs union or inserting safeguards on workers’ rights and environmental protections. Losing another meaningful vote on the deal could lead to the PM facing an Opposition motion of no confidence, paving the way for a general election and further clouding the Brexit process.