Budget scrutiny is still to come

Understandably, the focus on Thursday was not on the content of the speech delivered by Kate Forbes

It is fair to say this week’s Scottish budget announcement was somewhat overshadowed.

Instead of the usual rigorous scrutiny and comment which would normally accompany the statement, attention was firmly placed on the departing finance secretary Derek Mackay.

That is entirely understandable. The nature of his departure is nothing less than a political bombshell and the ramifications are yet to play out.

The rising star Kate Forbes admirably stepped in to deliver the budget and was rightly praised for the way she handled what was a very difficult situation. Again though attention was focused on “a 29-yearold becoming the first woman to deliver a budget” rather than the substance of the announcement.

It is of course worthy of note that gender balance has at last reached the financial heart of the government – especially as it remains lacking at Westminster – but it should not be celebrated as much as shaming us that it took so long to get to this point.

So when will we know what the figures mean? Perhaps not any time soon, partly because of the unusual situation of the UK Budget not being revealed until March.

MSPS will vote on the Holyrood Budget before the Westminster version is revealed, which presumably could in turn lead to revisions in Edinburgh.

We do know that there will be no changes to income tax rates in Scotland in the coming year, but freezing the upper rate tax threshold could yet widen the gap between what higher earners pay in Scotland and the rest of the UK.

We know councils will certainly not be happy but the impact of their settlements will take time to filter through. And we also know that the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) believes the Scottish Government should start planning for a looming “half-a-billion-pound hit”.

Previous income tax forecasts, which are used to set the annual budget and determine how much money Scotland receives in the block grant, apparently led to the Government receiving more funding than it should have done.

The upshot says SFC chief executive John Ireland is that Scottish ministers “need to start thinking” about how they will account for the money.

“I wouldn’t call it a headache,” he says, “I would call it that funny feeling you have in your head when you wake up and you’re not quite sure if you’re going to have a headache.”

In other words, the sort of feeling Nicola Sturgeon must have every day at the moment before checking the news headlines.