Pennington says no evidence easing lockdown will spark second spike

A premature ending of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions might not result in a second spike of infections from the virus, leading expert Professor Hugh Pennington has told the Scottish Parliament.

In a letter to MSPS on Holyrood’s Health Committee, the University of Aberdeen emeritus professor said he has seen “no evidence” to suggest there could be a rise in cases “more virulent than the one we have endured”.

He said while previous flu pandemics have seen second waves of infection more deadly than the initial outbreak, this may not be the case for coronavirus.

He said: “In my opinion the more we learn about Covid-19, the more the differences with influenzavirusbecomeapparent.”

Speaking of the potential for a second spike, he added: “It is far more likely that our situation would resemble that in Singapore, where infections would continue to occur with cases numbers declining but at a slower pace than if controls had been maintained.”

He also suggested that within Scotland, residents in Orkney and the Western Isles could be “freed earlier from social distancing and lockdown than mainland communities”. Prof Pennington said this is because “they have had few Covid-19 cases”, with noone in hospital in Orkney since 5 April and since 2 April in the Western Isles.

Asked about his comments at the Scottish Government’s coronavirus briefing, Ms Sturgeon said she has to base her judgements on the advice of the chief medical officer and her advisory group.

She added: “I don’t know what Hugh Pennington is basing that on.

“It was put to me last week something he said about the R number and care homes. I have no idea what he was basing that on, either.”