Covid crisis won’t be ‘over by Christmas’

Despite talk of a relaxation of the lockdown, any celebrations would be most premature

Today, Scotland joins the world in celebrating the 75th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day, when the war-mongering, murderous and downright evil Nazi regime was finally vanquished after six years of war.

The joy of that day was only tempered by the knowledge that lives were being lost in the Pacific as Japan’s despotic rulers fought on despite the certainty of defeat, inflicting misery and death on both the Allies and their own people. Germany and Japan are now part of the global community of liberal democracies, countries which have helped ensure that there has never been a return to the grim days of the Second World War, the bloodiest conflict humanity has ever seen.

We are now facing a very different kind of deadly threat in the form of the Covid-19 coronavirus, but hopes have been raised of a swift return to something like normal with suggestions the UK Government may soon start to lift the lockdown’s restrictions, although Nicola Sturgeon warned yesterday that “any significant easing up of restrictions would be very very risky” and Boris Johnson’s spokesman has stressed that “we will advance with maximum caution” and not do anything that risks a second wave of infections.

However, whatever either leader decides to do, no one should think it’s time to take to the streets in celebration like the 8 May, 1945 – we are still far away from Victory over Coronavirus Day. Wartime comparisons may have limited use, but anyone who thinks this will ‘all be over by Christmas’ or sooner is likely to be disappointed.

The easing of the current controls on our freedom will be done only gradually and may have to be reversed if the virus starts spreading more quickly once again. As we have said before, maintaining discipline and sticking to the rules will be even more vital when the restrictions become more complicated. And, even after the virus itself is defeated, we will still face significant economic problems resulting from the current global shutdown. The Bank of England predicts the economy will shrink by 14 per cent this year and not recover to its precovid peak until summer next year. And that recovery may take a while to redress the damage done and replace the jobs lost.

So in the months ahead, we may need to summon up the same spirit of unity, self-sacrifice and hard work that helped our ancestors triumph in the Second World War.