Will Highland Show return to good health next year or still be blighted by Covid and Brexit?
To put in context what that could mean for all of us, the NFU estimates that the output of our farmers, crofters and growers amounts to around £2.9bn per year. And the industry is responsible for a large proportion of Scotland’s £5 billion food and drink exports.
When you take those figures into account, you begin to see what the impact of undermining the sustainability of that sector could be, not just on those involved but on all of us.
That is even before you begin to consider the potential impact on food standards which has exercised so many over a possible trade deal with the United States.
The juxtaposition of everything we celebrate over those four days – our pride in our industry, the quality of our agricultural and the food it produces – placed against the prospect of imported chlorinated chicken from America is bleak.
It is little comfort, however, that the much trumpeted trade deal with the US looks increasingly unlikely as we hurtle towards the next presidential election.
It would need the approval of Congress, so the reality is that the negotiations might finish under a different administration, bringing a level of uncertainty to them.
Will they, the Government, want it – just like Brexit – ‘done’, regardless of the cost?
And ahead of the election, Trump will surely want to prove to his electorate that he is capable of delivering something for US agriculture. He has, by all accounts, already failed to deliver Chinese custom.
According to the Washington Post, even the UK’S estimates are modest, stating in March “that a comprehensive agreement would boost our gross domestic product by 0.16 per cent, increase wages by 0.2 per cent and save the average household about £8 per year on tariffs”.
With expected losses to come from the new relationship with the EU, this just isn’t enough. On top of a recession all too likely.
So, apart from the false glamour of being able to pronounce that we have a trade deal with the US, which of us would want our shelves filled with chlorinated chicken and hormone-treated beef when what we produce here is so much better?
That is exactly what would have been on show this past weekend in Edinburgh. The very finest of British produce and agricultural acumen.
Even if I put aside my own political and patriotic attachment to our industry, it stuns me that our Government has responded so little to the thought of its cancellation this year.
Despite numerous letters to the relevant Government departments and direct questions to ministers, the only response was from the then parliamentary under-secretary of state for Scotland. He did respond to my requests for support and his promise to get back to me was, I know from conversations with him, genuine.
Unfortunately he could not do so before leaving the Government.
I know the sector’s employers, producers and the show itself will be able to apply for the various grants, loans and supports available.
I just wish I could be confident that it will be enough to ensure a healthy show – and industry – next year. Christine Jardine is the Liberal Democrat MP for Edinburgh West