Covid-free Scotland by end of summer?
Scotland’s success in the virus battle has been hard won, writes Lesley Riddoch
A scientist has said Scotland could be free of Covid-19 by the end of the summer as the country recorded no new deaths from the virus for the third day.
Professor Devi Sridhar said that Scotland should look at safeguards such as quarantine to deal with any “imported cases”.
Scotland could be free of Covid-19 by the end of the summer, according to a leading Scottish Government adviser on tackling the virus.
Professor Devi Sridhar, of Edinburgh University, also said Scotland and England are effectively pursuing different strategies on tackling the virus, with more of a focus on reopening the economy south of the Border despite “substantial” cases in communities.
Scotland should look at safeguards such as quarantine to deal with the danger of “imported cases” coming into country, she added, especially when the tourism sector reopens on 15 July.
Prof Sridhar’s comments came as no new Scottish deaths were recorded for the third day in a row yesterday.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said on Friday that Scotland is not far away from “total elimination” of the virus. This would mean some isolated cases remain but are more straightforward for authorities to identify and trace those who may be affected.
Prof Sridhar, who sits on the Scottish Government’s advisory group on Covid-19, told BBC Scotland yesterday: “I think Scotland is on track to eliminate coronavirus by the end of the summer by looking at the rate of the decrease [in new cases]. But we are going to see little bumps, so it’s a question of how small can you keep those bumps.”
She also suggested that Scotland and England are now on different paths in their approach to tackling the virus.
Asked if the strategy was the same south of the Border, she said: “I don’t think so. I think England’s strategy is to reopen as quickly as possible, to get the economy going.
“But the problem is that you still have substantial number of cases. The latest estimates are 3,000-4,000 cases in the ONS survey a few weeks back, and given the opening up and the behaviour since then it’s probably even higher, so on a daily basis 5,000-6000 new daily cases in England.
“So things look like in England they are going to keep opening up until they feel that NHS capacity might be breached and then possibly might look at local lockdown measures.”
Prof Sirdhar suggested that England was now the “outlier” in the UK, with Northern Ireland also moving towards elimination of the virus.
With the Scottish Government unable to close its borders, she suggested measures may have to be put in place to guard against visitors from England bringing in the virus.
“The next best thing is to look across the world, at Australia, Germany and in the United States … and trying to find ways like quarantine or other checks to make sure when there are clear differences in incidences that you are catching those cases through screening, through quarantine, through testing.”
Meanwhile, Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, admitted he is “worried” about a possible spike in coronavirus infections in England.
Speaking to the BBC’S Andrew Marr Show, he said: “I would predict, I would guess, that we will start to see a few increases in cases towards the end of June or the first week of July. We’re on a knife edge, it’s very precarious the situation.”
Sir Jeremy, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said that easing lockdown at the end of May was “too early” due to the number of cases. But he said that lower numbers now made it“reasonable” to open up the economy.
He added that the next three months will be “absolutely critical” in the fight against coronavirus in the UK.
“Come the winter, come the reopening of schools, which is absolutely critical, we can anticipate to see rebounds and second waves,” he said. “That’s the key, using June, July and August really cleverly, making sure we have everything in place and learning the lessons from February and March.”
There have been no coronavirus deaths in Scotland for three days. What a precious but fragile sentence.
Figures released yesterday by the Scottish Government show no fatalities registered in the last 24 hours amongst those testing positive for the virus. Figures are low at weekends, but that is 72 hours without another confirmed death.
Yes, things could easily change today. Yes, Scotland’s overall
Covid death total has been shamefully high, especially in care homes. Yes, our test and trace system ground to a premature halt in March. Yes, there have been mistakes.
But the longer lockdown, clearer communication, unique network of coronavirus assessment centres, greater public lockdown compliance – and perhaps some learning from early mistakes – seem to be have produced this welcome health dividend.
Whatever the precise reasons, we’re now at a stage where experts like Professor Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health and a member of the Scottish government’s Covid-19 advisory group, believe Scotland might even be Covid-free by the end of the summer if we stick to the rules. She told BBC Politics Scotland yesterday that the biggest challenge is managing the importation of new cases.
‘If Scotland was an island – like New Zealand – I would say going for zero cases would be completely feasible.’
What exactly did that mean? The BBC website went on to say; “An open border with England – where hundreds of cases are still being reported daily – is a concern, as is enforcing the 14-day quarantine of people flying into Scotland.” Whether that’s a paraphrase of Ms Sridhar’s beliefs or the BBC speaking for itself it is a statement of the blindingly obvious.
Protecting Scotland’s new, hard-won reduction in the Covid transmission rate should be the Scottish government’s top priority, and if that means having some control over likely sources of new infection, so be it.
It’s against this background that the weekend’s news should be judged.
Firstly, newspapers announced that Boris Johnson plans to end quarantine for visitors from countries involved in “air bridges” later this week. Despite Downing Street assurances that all devolved nations were consulted, it turns out none of them were. So far, so usual.
But suddenly, that lack of input from Edinburgh has become a far bigger political issue.
Scotland is heading for zero new Covid cases but is also being huckled into accepting air bridges and an end to quarantine rushed through by a Prime Minister desperate to reduce overcrowding on southern beaches, deflect from his own government’s myriad failings and the everincreasing ratings of Labour rival Keir Starmer. Does that feel right?
Certainly, Boris Johnson’s 14-day quarantine system was introduced far too late in the pandemic. It’s also true that most European countries are now statistically safer in terms of Covid infection rates, than the UK. But maybe not safer than Scotland.
That’s why Nicola Sturgeon needs the political space to come to her own decision about how and whether to re-open Scotland’s borders – because the next six weeks will be absolutely pivotal in determining if schools here can reopen in August and if the inevitable second wave of Covid-19 this autumn will be large or small.
Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a member of the UK Government’s SAGE Advisory Group told the Andrew Marr programme: “Come the winter, we can anticipate to see rebounds and second waves. The question is do you start from a very low base, like in Scotland, a few dozen cases, or maybe a few hundred cases in England. We’re on a knife edge, it’s very precarious the situation, particularly in England, and I would anticipate we would see an increase in new cases over the coming weeks.”
Read between the lines.
The experts are acknowledging what the figures make clear. Scotland overall has reached a precarious but enviable state of Covid containment. England overall has not.
So, what’s to be done? Elsewhere, low transmission states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut plan to stop visitors from nine US states with “significant community spread”.
Closer to home, Ireland is set to place a new quarantine on British travellers in July because of the UK’S “significantly poorer” response to the coronavirus pandemic – particularly significant given the Common Travel Area between Britain and Ireland which has allowed free movement across the Irish Sea for decades.
So, is the Scottish Government about to try and impose similar restrictions on cross-border travel, even without having devolved control over security and borders?
That has become the second big story of the weekend.
Currently, anyone entering Scotland or England from overseas must go into quarantine for two weeks or face a £480 fine. Yesterday some newspapers suggested the Scottish Government will apply the same scheme to visitors from parts of England like Leicester, where the Covid-19 infection rate is high.
A senior SNP source yesterday clarified that whilst the Scottish Government can’t rule out such a cross-border quarantine, it’s not planning to introduce one. Instead, it will ask people in “local lockdowns” south of the Border not to head to Scotland.
This surely is the right approach – though it will benefit from careful explanation by the First Minister.
Anything more formal right now would prompt question marks over the constitutional competence of the Scottish Government and the legal basis of police powers, might risk accusations of antienglishness (however unwarranted) and present logistical problems.
A plea from a popular First Minister to the rest of Britain is a much better and more viable first step. But if it fails, Nicola Sturgeon would be quite right to consider stronger action.
After all, does anyone really believe Boris Johnson’s abandonment of quarantine and expected introduction of air-bridges is “guided by the science” or political expediency? Does anyone think his “five tests” were actually met before lockdown was relaxed in England? If the answer to both questions is no, then Scottish citizens should have the courage of our convictions and be ready to back the First Minister in any moves that help protect Scotland against the risk of importing new Covid cases.
Surely, after the early disaster of following Boris Johnson’s lead, Scots must be ready to learn from bitter experience – even if that courts confrontation with Number Ten.