Finding a path to quiet optimism
There is a risk that urging farmers to be confident and enthusiastic about the future will make the wellmeaning writer sound like Boris Johnson on one of his booster rants with lots of oomph, gusto and mindless optimism and few facts to back up the advice.
But what alternative is there to optimism as farmers face the uncertainties of Brexit and the aftermath and restrictions, even easing as they are, of the coronavirus pandemic? Ah, obviously, and in line with farming tradition, we can be determinedly pessimistic, as 37 per cent of farmers, crofters and smallholders were in a recent survey.
More than 2,500 took part, a sizeable sample of Scottish farming, in the survey carried out by the SRUC, Scotland’s rural college, and the James Hutton Institute. This found that as well as the 37 per cent who felt negative towards the outcome of Brexit negotiations another 37 per cent had concerns, most of them serious.
And farmers in Scotland’s designated less favoured areas – the hills and moorland that make up much of the country, and in the Highlands and islands – were more pessimistic than most, probably because the possibilities they have for change or diversification are fewer than for those on better land and with a more favourable climate.
But in the way of surveys, turn it upside down and 26 per cent of those taking part were positive about the future. That is quite an endorsement for the forward-thinkers and forward-planners in an industry that is often thought of as 100 per cent pessimistic, where things are thought of as bad, and change can only be for the worse.
I find that 26 per cent encouraging, and also confirmation of the criteria coined years ago to describe a division of how farmers ran their businesses: the planner, the plodder and the plonker.
No apologies for quoting again that the planner says: “I wonder what would happen if…?” The plodder asks: “I wonder what’s happening?” And the plonker says: “Good grief, how did that happen?”
The trick would be for the plodders and the plonkers to raise their game – or at least their aspirations – to plan ahead with hope and enthusiasm as the optimistic 26 per cent in the survey are obviously doing.
But it’s not easy. As Professor Andrew Barnes of the SRUC survey team said, the concern is that pessimism about a Brexit future could lead to a decline in investment that will reduce farming’s future productivity and growth.
Resilience and willingness to change was essential, he said – a resilience farmers were already showing as the country slowly emerges from the effects of Covid-19 and the lengthy lockdown.
Chloe Mcculloch, principal consultant with SAC Consulting – part of SRUC, the business is helping farmers face the complexities of Brexit – said: “Farminghasalwaysbeenvolatile and farmers are resourceful. But with Brexit it is possible that the magnitude of the shock heading our way will mean that many businesses will find the status quo unsustainable.”
Seeing that written down as stark fact was “really tough” to take for many farmers, but she warned that putting off planning for the future while waiting for some clarity about Brexit negotiations was not an option.
She said that uncertainty is the “new normal” as we enter what could possibly be decades of trade negotiations. She added: “There is not going to be any ‘better’ time to start planning …Whatmightseemimpossible at first glance could, when they live with the idea for a while, begin to seem more realistic.”
Against this background of uncertainty on almost all fronts, it’s encouraging to see NFU Scotland, representing every type of farmer, in positive mode rather than being a Jeremiah.
Last week, Jonnie Hall, the union’s director of policy, told the Scottish Parliament’s rural economy committee that the union recognised Scottish farming as a whole must change and adapt to a new environment. Life for farmers was not going to be business as usual.
Leaving the European Union and coping with a post-virus world will be challenging, he said, but he added: “There is a significant opportunity for the sector within this challenge.”
Here’s to that positive outlook sweeping through the industry.