Potential surge in HIV, TB and malaria due to coronavirus

● Pandemic ‘undermines work done to control major diseases over past 20 years’

Some nations could see HIV, tuberculosis (TB), and malaria deaths increase over the next five because of disruption to health services caused by coronavirus, a new study suggests.

Researchers estimate that in some low and middle-income countries (LMICS) affected by these diseases, the impact of Covid-19 disruption on years of life lost could be of a similar scale to the direct impact of the pandemic itself.

Maintaining core services for HIV, TB, and malaria could largely mitigate the broader health impact of Covid-19, researchers say.

This includes ensuring access to antiretroviral therapy (Art), timely TB diagnosis and treatment, and early resumption of the distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINS) and anti-malarial treatment.

However, in the study published in Lancet Global Health, the authors caution that predicting the true impact of the pandemic and its response on other diseases is very difficult.

They highlight that their modelling study aims to quantify the potential scale of the impact of Covid-19, and to guide how it could be minimised, rather than provide precise estimates.

Malaria deaths worldwide have fallen by half since 2000, but progress has stalled as mosquitoes and parasites gain resistance to treatment.

Around 94 per cent of deaths occur in sub-saharan Africa where malaria claimed an estimated 380,000 lives in 2018.

Similarly, global HIV/AIDS deaths have halved in a decade driven by the availability of Art. In 2019, around 690,000 people died from the disease worldwide, the vast majority in LMICS.

An estimated 49 million lives were saved through TB diagnosis and treatment between 2000 and 2015, but the disease still claimed the lives of 1.8 million people in 2018.

Professor Timothy Hallett from Imperial College London - who co-led the research, said: “The Covid-19 pandemic and actions taken in response to it could undo the some of the advances made against major diseases such as HIV, TB, and malaria over the past two decades.

“In countries with a high malaria burden and large HIV and TB epidemics, even short-term disruptions could have devastating consequences for the millions of people who depend on programmes to control and treat these diseases.

“However, the knock-on impact of the pandemic could be largely avoided by maintaining core services and continuing preventative measures.”