Will a split unite the pro-indy parties in Holyrood?
What did Monty Python sketches ever do for us? Well apart from the laughs, and the silly walks, they neatly caricatured the internal divisions which can appear in political parties to such an extent that the very word “splitter” is a Pavlovian response whenever internal disunity and disharmony rears its head.
These divisions tend to happen more on the left than the right, however the latest group of splitters come from within the ranks of Scotland’s independence movement, and the party vehicle which brought the goal of a separate Scotland within touching distance six years ago.
The SNP, since its membership swelled massively after the 2014 vote, has been fac
ing the same problem with which the Labour Party continually grapples: how to hold a broad kirk of political opinion together, with everyone facing the same way, saying the same things at the same time. Strong leadership and a laser-like focus on the end game is needed to keep a vast, disparate group of people together, and the SNP has for some time been feeling that pressure.
Nicola Sturgeon’s cautious, gradualist approach to independence is not what many SNP supporters are looking for in 2020. They feel hamstrung by the need for a Section 30 to be granted by Westminster before another referendum can be held, and are pushing for this to be tested in the courts. She has been accused of taking her supporters
too often to the top of the hill, only to have them march back down again.
Furthermore there are members who have quit the party over its stance on Gender Recognition Act reform – from both sides of the argument – while the fallout from the Alex Salmond trial has seen elected SNP politicians at loggerheads.
Debate is now raging inside the Yes movement over whether both votes should go to the SNP next year and if not, then where should they place their x? The Greens have been the second choice for many in previous elections, but there is growing disaffection within the SNP membership with Patrick Harvie’s party.
Already a new party, Independence for Scotland has
launched, formed from previous SNP members, to stand candidates on the regional list next year, the independence blogger Wings Over Scotland has said he could launch his own party, and today has seen the announcement of a new Alliance for Independence (AFI) which, in a spirit of supreme confidence aims to return up to 24 MSPS at next year’s Holyrood elections.
Every new independence party, believes that there are votes to be had, from the SNP and the Greens, and that one million pro-independence voters did not vote in 2016, so could be tempted to their ranks.
Will it work? History suggest not. The last great split in party politics was the creation of the Social Democratic
Party in 1981 when four Labour moderates left to plough a new furrow in UK politics. It didn’t last long.
Change UK which briefly flared before being doused at the last general election saw MPS from Conservative, Labour and Libdems coalesce over their opposition to Brexit, but they made no electoral impact.
With so many competing for the same votes – namely those who are in favour of independence – they could ultimately cause too much refraction and lose out.
It’s an issue the pro-union parties have had to face for quite some time. No doubt they will be delighted that the hegemony of the SNP at the ballot box may now be challenged, even if it’s not by them.