Statistics watchdog rebukes Sturgeon over ‘five times lower’ Scottish claim

The UK’S statistics watchdog has rebuked the Scottish Government over the First Minister’s claim the prevalence of Covid-19 in Scotland was five times lower than in England.

The Office for Statistics Regulation said it did not think the Scottish Government’s sources allowed for the “quantified and uncaveated comparison of the kind that was made”.

The regulator has written to the Scottish Government’s chief statistician saying the studies relied on for the claim were unpublished.

Nicola Sturgeon first mentioned the figure in a speech early this month and repeated it several times later.

Outgoing Scottish Conservative leader Jackson Carlaw, who resigned late yesterday, and the First Minister had clashed over the letter in the Scottish Parliament.

Mr Carlaw said: “This isn’t just a number, this isn’t some statistical pedantry.

“This was the centrepiece of policy used to justify major decisions just three weeks ago.

“Ministers used it to explain the timing of lockdown being eased ... Nicola Sturgeon used this prevalence figure to suggest her policy was working better than elsewhere in the UK.”

He said the First Minister should admit the comparison between Scotland and England was “not true”.

The First Minister said she accepted the figures were unpublished and the “views of the statistics regulator on that”.

She said there was other evidence that pointed to a “significantly lower prevalence” of the virus in Scotland.

Ms Sturgeon said: “This attempt to somehow pretend that Scotland hasn’t made the progress that we self-evidently have made in the fight of this virus is bizarre.”

The Office for Statistics Regulation said there were “lessons to be learnt” from the case.