Deficit after independence would lead to deep austerity

● Promised ‘alternative’ tax and spend figures will not be published

A respected economic think tank has warned that the size of an independent Scotland’s deficit as a result of the Covid pandemic would generate deeper austerity than previously predicted, as it was revealed“alternative” taxation and spending figures promised by the Scottish Government would not be published.

Economist David Phillips of the Institute for Fiscal Studies( IF S) has estimated the annual gap between what the Scottish Government raises in taxes and what it spends on public services could surpass the £11.2 billion previously suggested by the SNP’S own Growth Commission economic report.

He warned the impact of coronavirus could mean an even tougher starting point for an independent Scotland as the annual Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures were due to be published, underlining fears by opposition parties that independence could mean tax rise sand services cuts.

Mr Phillips said: “The deficit would likely be higher than they assumed. This is partly due to the impact of Covid-19 and partly because even prior to the crisis the UK Government had released the purse strings.

Addressing this bigger deficit would require greater tax rise sand/ or spending restraint – effectively austerity – or a strong uptick in growth.”

Scotland’s economy slumped by almost a fifth between April and June, according to government figures, with a drop in Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter in a row, confirming a recession.

The Scottish Government is due to publish its annual GERS report today, giving the latest estimates on the difference between what Scotland raises in taxation and what it spends on public services.

However the figures have become the subject of heated debate as independence supporters do not believe they reveal how a separate Scotland would function economically, as they are based on the current constitutional state. Last year the then Economy Secretary, Derek Mackay, said he would produce his own set of “alternative GERS figures”, demonstrating how an independent Scotland might perform, but the government confirmed yesterday that the pandemic had “diverted resources” from producing the data.

Scottish Conservative MSP Murdo Fraser said he believed that this year’s GERS figures would “provoke lively debate... but would prove the benefit of the “union dividend”.” But SNP depute leader Keith Brown said :“The corona vi ru scrisis has created unprecedented demands on government spending across the world. Every country has had to borrow substantially. Scotland is not unique in this respect. However, it is in that we do not ourselves have the powers to borrow to meet the specific challenges we face – independence will give us those.”