Any Covid risks must be calculated ones

Those who took part in a rave in Midlothian are rightly condemned as ‘selfish and irresponsible’

Perhaps it was too much to hope for that Scotland would, somehow, be different to all those countries around the world seeing a resurgence of Covid-19.

For, while the actual number of cases in this country is low, the R number may now be as high as 1.4. What this means is that each infected person will, on average, pass on the virus to 1.4 people. If that remains the case, then this country should brace itself for another fullblown epidemic with all the deaths and economic hardship that this will bring.

The rise in the figure came as the first suspected cases of transmission of the disease in newly re-opened schools were reported and police raided a rave attended by some 300 people at a mansion house in Midlothian.

Clearly classrooms full of school pupils and a massive party are very different things, but from a virus’s point of view, they are both opportunities to spread from one human to another.

It was anticipated that the re-opening schools would lead to more cases but the decision was taken after balancing the risks against the dangers posed by continuing to disrupt children’s education and making it difficult for parents to return to work.

National clinical director Professor Jason Leitch said it “may be that a few kids or a few teachers or a class at a time will have to be isolated” and added it was “not impossible” that a school might have to close, but that efforts were being made to find and interrupt the chains of transmission.

A rave has no other purpose but for the participants to enjoy themselves and the fact it was being held in defiance of the lockdown means the vital task of testing and tracing any infections will be much more difficult.

Police said the partygoers had shown “a blatant disregard for the regulations in place to help save lives” while Midlothian councillor Stephen Curran added: “To call them selfish and irresponsible is an understatement.”

There is surely not a single person in Scotland who is not weary of the coronavirus outbreak and the restrictions on our lives.

But if we are to take calculated risks about re-opening shops, pubs and schools, we need everyone to keep playing their part and avoid further increasing the chances for this most infectious disease to spread.