Vaccine herd immunity ‘unlikely before summer’ as daily Covid cases hit 40,000
The UK is unlikely to achieve herd immunity through a Covid-19 vaccination programme before the summer, a scientist advising the UK Government warned yesterday, as the number of cases recorded in a single day rose above 40,000 for the first time.
There was a further 41,385 lab - confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK, while a further 357 people have died within 28 days of testing positive.
Dr Yvonne Doyle, medical director of Public Health England, said: "This very high level of infection is of growing concern at a time when our hospitals are at their most vulnerable, with new admissions rising in many regions."
C alum Semp le, professor of outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), described the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine as a "game changer" if it is approved by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in the coming days.
But he said: "To get the wider community herd immunity from vaccination rather than through natural infection will take probably 70 per cent to 80 per cent of the population to be vaccinated, and that, I'm afraid, is going to take us right into the summer I expect."
Professor Jackie Taylor, president of the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Glasgow, said non-urgent care would have to be paused in Scotland to cope with a rise in cases over the festive period.
She told BBC Breakfast: “Everybody has been working over the last nine months to try and ensure that we catch up with the backlog and we will continue to do that.
"But the harsh reality is that some places that are under pressure, some of that nonurgent work will have to b e paused. We have to focus on urgent work and we have to be able to roll out the vaccination programme.”
She added: “There are hidden harms from Covid both in terms of operations and all sorts of other social and mental health and economic harms, which we are all very, very aware of.
“As healthcare professionals, we want to be able to treat everyone, we want to ensure everyone gets the best of care, but unless we get a grip of Covid and really get on top of this then we won’t be able to open up the other services again.
“We have to focus on getting on top of the acute problems we have at the moment.”
Prof Taylor did not condemn the Scottish Government for relaxing the rules.
“We have to remember our humanity and how imp ortan tit is for some people to have had the ability to be with family even for a short time,” she said.
“I think it is absolutely right that the restrictions were only flexed for that day, but inevitably there will be a cost for this.”
Professor Mike Griffin, president of the Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh, said masks should b e worn outside to stop the NHS becoming “overwhelmed”.
He said it“would bec razy” not to take ever y precaution to reduce infections during the winter and that face masks should be worn in public spaces outdoors as well as indoors to protect the NHS.
Prof Griffin said :“I think this new variant of Covid has changed our thinking on all of this.”