The Scotsman

What to watch out for in the

All eyes will be on how the UK adapts to the new post-brexit arrangemen­t, with Michael Gove already warning it will be “bumpy” for many businesses

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Next year will see the UK Government face the aftermath of Brexit, rebuilding the economy after coronaviru­s and a battle to save the Union.

The number one issue in Westminste­r will be dealing with the aftermath of Brexit.

B oris Johnson has agreed a deal against the odds and must now prove this really is about forging a “global Britain”.

Failure to agree a deal would have been a financial and social disaster, and one that would have dominated all spending for decades as a result.

Instead all eyes will be on how the UK adapts to the new arrangemen­t, with Michael Gove already warning it will be “bumpy” for many businesses.

The senior Tor y minister has also claimed being outside the EU will help tackle "injustices and inequaliti­es", so how the UK Government sets out doing this will be key to staving off a resurgent Labour par t y.

Delivering a deal, however much worse it is than EU membership, has rallied Conser vatives around the PM, at a time many are

unhappy with him over the coronaviru­s restrictio­ns.

It has also created a headache for a Labour par t y, with several frontbench­ers and a lot more MPS unwilling to suppor t it.

Sir Keir Starmer has told his MPS to vote for it, but the great divisions in his par t y over Brexit are not settled, with many refusing to move on, regardless of the optics.

How the SNP’S refusal to suppor t the deal received is also key.

The par t y has labelled the agreement “damaging” and will not be suppor ting it, despite the only alternativ­e being no deal.

The Tories are framing this as the SNP back

ing no deal, a criticism they hope will cut through despite themselves using no deal as a tool throughout the negotiatio­ns.

Then there is the small matter of the Holyrood elections on May 6.

Mr Johnson’s predecesso­r has already taken Britain out of one union, now he faces losing S cotland from another.

Politicall­y toxic in S cotland, the PM faces an uphill battle to win over an electorate that dislikes him almost as much as it opposes Brexit. A Nationalis­t majorit y could make the case for indyref 2 undeniable, sparking yet another constituti­onal crisis.

The most recent poll, pub - lished by Savanta Comres earlier this month in par tnership with The S cotsman, had 58 per cent on Yes when don't knows were excluded. This is the 17th poll in a row to show a Yes lead.

How Westminste­r tries to ward off an SNP majorit y and second referendum will shape much of the early months of next year and beyond, with the PM well aware S cotland leaving would define his premiershi­p.

November saw the Union Unit set up, tasked with battling the surging suppor t for S cottish independen­ce. The unit aims to utilise social media and traditiona­l media platforms to spread its message to S cots that their future belongs with the UK.

S o far ideas have included putting up more Union flags and even asking for them to be stamped on the coronaviru­s vaccine.

The ideas from this group will be crucial if unionism is to make any breakthrou­gh among the electorate.

The election will be the first significan­t test of new Tor y leader Douglas Ross, who has thus far sought to establish the S cottish Tories as a significan­tly different entit y to the main brand.

Mr Ross has been an outspoken critic of his own part y and also made clear his group will no longer vote on English- only matters.

Focusing instead on issues such as the care home crisis and vaccine roll- out, S cotland’s main opposition part y look unlikely to achieve the success of 2016, but know the real target now is doing enough to stop a SNP majorit y.

This has even seen Mr Ross hint his par t y could form a coalition with Labour, in a clear move to unite the unionism vote.

Sir Keir has proven pop - ular in S cotland and will make visits nor th of the B order where he will stress a better offer under a Labour Government. Whether his approval translates to the embattled Richard Leonard remains to be seen.

For MPS across the house, the main concern will be the economy. R avaged by the pandemic, how the UK Government tries to balance the books remains to be seen.

A fiscal liber tarian despite his spending, Chancellor Rishi Sunak is loath to raise taxes. Not doing so was in the Tor y manifesto, but so was not cutting the Foreign Aid budget.

These decisions will need

to come while the UK continues to keep the spending taps on.

The furlough scheme has been extended, as has the increase in Universal Credit. Opposition par ties are demanding the latter becomes permanent, a big ask from a government that had to be pressured into paying for school meals.

Mr Johnson will also have to handle the jobs crisis. The UK unemployme­nt rate is currently at 4.9 per cent, meaning 1.69 million peo - ple are unemployed. It is expected to reach 2.6 million next year, according to the government's economic watchdog, 7.5 per cent of the working age population.

The Chancellor has repeatedly warned he “cannot save ever y job” and with hospitalit y continuing to be hit by restrictio­ns, more job losses are cer tain.

To address this, Mr Johnson promised a green job revolution, as par t of his “levelling up agenda”. Cre - ating 250,000 jobs by 2030, this investment will come too late for many. Finally there is transpor t. Through the Union Connectivi­t y Review, the UK Government next year wants to focus on improving air links, boosting road and rail for S cotland, cutting journey times to Nor th Wales, and building a fixed link bet ween Great Britain and Nor thern Ireland.

How this will translate to actual improvemen­ts and spending remains to be seen.

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 ??  ?? 0 Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer speaks during Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons, London.
0 Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer speaks during Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons, London.
 ??  ?? 0 Douglas Ross MP speaks at at Perth Concert Hall in November
0 Douglas Ross MP speaks at at Perth Concert Hall in November

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