New poll predicts indy majority as Sturgeon says Covid ‘might have helped’
Coronavirus may have had a positive impact on support for Scottish independence, Nicola Sturgeon has said as a new poll gives the SNP a slim majority in the May election, and predicts Alex Salmond’s new Alba Party would win six seats.
The First Minister said she believed the pandemic had “perhaps” made people think "about the benefit of selfgovernment", although she stressed there was “no upside” to the virus.
Her comments come days after she said a second independence referendum could be held during the “recover phase” from Covid, and as a new Panelbase poll revealed that the SNP would win a narrow outright majority with 65 seats, with the Scottish Greens forecast to take eight seats and the new Alba Party six seats. Combined, proindependence parties would win 79 of the 129 seats in Holyrood.
The poll also put the Scottish Conservatives on 24 seats, Scottish Labour on 20, the Liberal Democrats on five, and predicted George Galloway could enter the Scottish Parliament as his pro-u nion Alliance for Unity group may take
a single seat. Polling expert Sir John Curtice said despite Ms Sturgeon’s call for “both votes SNP” in the election, 9 per cent of those who back the SNP in the constituency vote indicated they would vote Alba on the list, while 10 per cent would opt for the Scottish Greens as their second vote.
“Alba is appealing to a section of the nationalist movement that wants a rapid timetable for indyref2 and which still admires Salmond,” he said.
“As many as 70 per cent of Alba supporters want a referendum within 12 months compared with 48 per cent of SNP list voters and 35 per cent of Green voters.
“While 93 per cent of those who back Alba believe that Salmond is ‘a fit person to stand for election’, only 13 per cent of SNP supporters and 15 per
cent of Green voters take the same view.
He added: “Although most of the seats the party could win with a 6 per cent tally look as though they would be secured at the expense of the unionist parties, our projection suggests that a couple might otherwise have been won by the SNP or the Greens.
“Even with an estimated 49 per cent of the constituency vote, that is not a possibility the SNP will regard with equanimity.
“Such a result in the constituencies could still leave the party a seat short of an overall majority and reliant on winning a vital list seat to achieve what has come to be regarded as a crucial target.”
Alex Salmond welcomed the polling numbers and said his party had “only just begun” to make its case.
“The reality that voting SNP on the list is the ultimate wasted vote is starting to cut through. And therefore Alba is gaining ground,” he said.
“In a single week Alba has overtaken the Liberal Democrats, a party which has been around for 150 years, in both membership and poll ratings.
"A week is a long time in politics. And for the Unionist parties, the next five weeks shall be a political eternity.”
In a separate interview, Ms Sturgeon said the polling numbers could result from the coronavirus forcing people to reflect on the constitutional situation.
Asked if the pandemic may have affected support for independence, she said: "I don't know the answer to that question, what I know is support for independence has grown over the past year, and is at a higher level now, and a higher, apparently sustainable level, than it's been ever before.
"What the reasons for that are, I guess is open to debate. I think Brexit still has a big part to play."
She continued: "If I could change things so we never had had Covid and that meant support for independence wasn't quite as high as it was, I would trade any day.
"But people have, at a time of crisis, looked to their own government here in Scotland to lead, and they won't have agreed with every decision we have taken at times, but at a time of crisis, I think what we have seen is that natural inclination of people to look to their own democratically elected government.
"And perhaps that has made people think about the benefit of self government, and it may well be that that is having some kind of impact in the polls."
The SNP leader said that "independence has never enjoyed the kind of reasonably long term, sustained, majority support it has in recent times".
And while she said there would be "fluctuations in that, I am sure" she added that the "baseline appears to be higher than it has been at any time ever".
Despite that support in the polls for independence, Ms Sturgeon has not welcomed the launch of the Alba Party, which she has said could prove more of a “hindrance” than a help.
She has also poured cold water on Mr Salmond’s strategy for a pro-independence “supermajority” saying he could not “bulldoze” his way to independence.
Panelbase surveyed 1,009 adults in Scotland between 30 March and 1 April .
Support fund for parents with children in hospital to be increased
A £1.5million fund aimed at helping the families of premature and sick newborn babies cope with the financial cost of their child being in hospital is to be increased to £5m to cover all young patients under the age of 18.
The Neonatal Expenses Fund was established by the Scottish Government in 2018 after a campaign by Scottish Labour MSP Mark Griffin, who experienced first-hand the costs of visiting hospital on a daily basis for weeks after his daughter was born 12 weeks early.
Nicola Sturgeon said yesterday that if re-elected, the SNP would expand the fund which helps offset the cost for parents and guardians of travelling to hospital and for subsistence such as meals and away from home accommodation where that is necessary.
She said it would be rebranded as the Young Patients Family Fund, and would “remove a significant financial burden which can prevent families from being near their children when they’re in hospital”.
She added: “Spending time at hospital can be a really worrying time for young patients. The SNP wants to make sure that families spend their time caring for their sick child, not having to worry about who will cover the cost of travel, hotels and meals.
“The SNP has a bold vision for the future of Scotland. Make sure to give both your votes to the SNP to deliver this transformative change for our young people and their families.”
The Neonatal Expenses Fund allows families to claim for the travel costs of one
return journey, parking and up to £8.50 in subsistence costs each day for the duration of their baby's stay in a unit.
About 4,400 babies are born prematurely every year in Scotland, and the average additional cost to parents is estimated to be more than £200 a week. At its launch it was expected to help more than 8,000 families each year.
Scottish Labour MSP Mark Griffin campaigned on the issue with Bliss charity after his baby daughter Rosa was born 12 weeks early in 2017.
He said he had seen parents in distress because they were unable to visit their children in hospital each day because of the travel costs.
The move to expand the scheme comes after a campaign by CLIC Sargent, a charity for children and young people with cancer,
which has called for the creation of a Young Cancer Patient Travel Fund since 2018.
SNP MP Amy Callaghan, who twice survived cancer as a teenager, heralded the move as “ground-breaking” for young patients:
“I know from experience that having a familiar face close by is a huge comfort during what can be a daunting experience in hospital.
“We know that having the support of loved ones during hospital treatment can improve health outcomes for children and young people and this move will make a real difference to families across Scotland.
“I am delighted the SNP is expanding on the suggestion of CLIC Sargent - and I’m sure this will be a decision welcomed by patients, their families and our amazing NHS.”