Analysis: Despite his personal appeal to voters, eight weeks on Sarwar's Labour party is struggling
Eight weeks after being elected as the new Scottish Labour leader, the consensus in the polls is that Anas Sarwar is liked by voters.
His personal approval rating is up 21 percentage points since March, a rise from 18 per centto39percentofvoterswho believe he is doing a good job. It certainly makes a change from his predecessor Richard Leonard, who never again saw the heady heights of -15 per cent when he was box-fresh in the post.
But then he is relaxed in front of a TV camera, is humorous and understands the power of the language of empathy. Polls also suggest that Mr Sarwar’s focus on Covid recovery rather than the constitu
tion is what the voters want to hear. Yet Scottish Labour is just polling around 20 per cent on both the constituency and list votes,andasaresultwouldlose MSPS, potentially as many as five, which would see the party going backwards for the fifth Scottish Parliament election in a row. The manifesto, which was launched on Thursday, is packed full of feel-good policies, even if there are not quite as many “freebies” as in the SNP’S. It claims that there will be no income tax rises on anyoneearninglessthan£100,000a yearanditwillspend£4.5bnon a Covid recovery plan, offering guaranteed jobs and £75 high street gift vouchers to kick start high streets across Scotland.
But of course the elephant in theroomheissokeentoavoid mentioning is independence and a second referendum. He dismisses the issue as something “of the past” and believes itshouldgowithoutsayingthat he is against both.
And yet… even he knows that this is very much an issue of the futuretoo.hemaybelievescotland cannot afford to discuss theconstitutionforthenextfive years, but that ship has sailed, with his rivals, Nicola Sturgeon and Douglas Ross wholly tied to that mast; one claiming a proper recovery from Covid needs independence, the other that the Scottish Government needs to work ever closer with the UK government.
Every Labour leader, no matterhowpersonallypopular,has faced the same problem since 2014 – being tossed around on stormy constitutional waters, clingingtoaraftofsocialjustice and economics, while the SNP and Tories sit happily beneath the waves submerged in their nationalistic certainties.
Mr Sarwar is no different. With a hard-headed acknowledgementhewon’tbefirstminister any time soon, he can only hope that the next two weeks sees a new wave of support for his party.