New variant of virus leaves twice as many seriously ill
●Vaccine also offers slightly less protection against the Delta strain
The Delta variant of Covid-19 is almost twice as likely to result in hospitalisation, a groundbreaking study led by Edinburgh University has found. variant, first identified in India, is also less responsive to the Pfizer and Astrazeneca vaccines than the previous Alpha strain identified in Kent.
Early evidence showed that the Pfizer vaccine offers 79 per cent protection against the Delta variant, comthis pared with 92 per cent against the Alpha strain.
Researchers described the increased risk of hospitalisation as “bad news” but said the findings on vaccines were good news, as they are still very effective.
The findings come as First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is set to give a Covid update to the Scottish Parliament today in which she is expected to say the planned further easing of restrictions from 28 June will not
take place. Under the timeframe previously set out by the SNP Government, all of mainland Scotland was due to enter level zero restrictions on that date.
However, due to rising cases of the Delta variant, and the fact that just under half of adults have still not been fully vaccinated, this may be delayed.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson last night announced a four-week delay to the final easing of restrictions in England, from 21 June to 19 July.
The new research was published as Scotland’s national clinical director Jason Leitch warned that one dose of vaccine provides only 30 per cent protection against Covid.
The Delta variant has “changed the game”, he told the BBC’S Good Morning Scotland.
He said: “Everything still works – distancing, ventilation, handwashing all still works – but what’s new about the Delta variant, and this is horrid, and we’ve learned it increasingly over the last few weeks, is the second dose is required for decent protection.
“You get about 30 per cent protection from one dose, you get 80 to 85 per cent from two … we vaccinated about half the
country’s adults twice, now we need to get that up.”
Asked whether decisionmakers should be confident that vaccines are effective enough against this variant to allow for a full easing of restrictions once more people have had two doses, the study authors said the vaccine protection is “substantive” and “strong”.
The peer-reviewed findings, from researchers at Edinburgh and Strathclyde universities and Public Health Scotland, are published in a research letter in the Lancet medical journal.
They are part of the EAVE II project, which studies the pandemic and vaccine rollout in real time, using anonymised patient data from almost the entire population of Scotland.
Researchers found the Delta variant had an 85 per cent increased risk of hospitalisation compared with the Alpha variant, after adjusting for age, underlying health conditions and other factors.
However, researchers noted the average length of hospital stay is shorter now than during previous waves of the virus.
Researchers studied the period from 1 April to 6 June, when there were 19,543 community cases and 377 hospitalisations where a specific variant was confirmed.
Of these, 7,723 cases and 134 hospitalisations were the Delta variant.
Preliminary evidence showed the Pfizer vaccine is slightly less effective when faced with the Delta variant, offering 79 per cent protection two weeks after the second dose, compared with 92 per cent in the case of the Alpha variant.
The Astrazeneca vaccine is also less effective – 60 per cent against the Delta variant and 73 per cent against the Alpha strain.
Researchers warned against any comparison between the Pfizer and Astrazeneca vaccines.
While the Astrazeneca jag appears to be less effective, it has been given to a different – and older – population in Scotland, so the results are not comparable, they said, adding the Astrazeneca jag may take longer to develop immunity.
The findings also showed the importance of people taking up both doses of vaccine, as the protection offered by a single dose was only about 30 per cent from the Pfizer vaccine and 18 per cent from the Astrazeneca vaccine, 28 days after the first dose.
Results also showed that protection is much lower in the month after the first dose, and the two weeks after the second.
Professor Aziz Sheikh, study lead and director of Edinburgh University’s Usher Institute, said the findings showed it was “absolutely fundamental” for people to take up both doses and to wait the necessary two weeks after the second dose to be fully protected.
He said: “Over a matter of weeks the Delta variant has become the dominant strain of Sars-cov-2 in Scotland. It is unfortunately associated with increased risk of hospitalisation from Covid-19.
“Whilst possibly not as effective as against other variants, two doses of the Pfizer-biontech and Oxford-atrazeneca vaccines still offer substantial protection against the risk of infection and hospitalisation.
“It is therefore really important that, when offered second doses, people take these up both to protect themselves and to reduce household and community transmission.”
Dr Jim Mcmenamin, Covid-19 national incident director for Public Health Scotland, warned the results were preliminary and would need to be compared with further studies in other countries.
He also stressed the importance of people coming forward for vaccination.
“The bad news is we do appear to be able to show that the Delta variant does increase the risk of hospitalisation,” he said. “However, what we are able to see is that our vaccines are still highly effective.
“Two doses provide strong protection against the risk of hospitalisation … or infection in the community.”
A separate study yesterday also found unvaccinated people have twice the risk of hospital admission with the Delta variant as the Alpha variant.
The study, based on new data from Public Health England, found both the Pfizer/biontech and Oxford/astrazeneca vaccines are “highly effective” in coping with it.
Some 761 new cases of Covid were reported yesterday.
tive overall and 100 per cent effective against preventing moderate or severe disease.
Officials said the findings also "reaffirm the ability of the vaccine to prevent Covid-19 amid ongoing genetic evolution of the virus".
The vaccine was also reported to be "well tolerated", with some participants reporting injection site pain and tenderness, and fatigue, headache and muscle pain.
The two-dose vaccine works in a different way from the jabs used in the UK. It combines an engineered protein from the virus that causes Covid-19 with a plantbased ingredient to help generate an immune response.
Dr Gregory Glenn, president of research and development at Novavax, said the company was having "very active, constructive" discussions with the MHRA.
On the mix and match studies
in the UK, which are testing a combination of different vaccines, he said: "They are looking at the safety and immunogenicity and I think the researchers are going to submit a letter to The Lancet on the safety, so look for that this week.
"Overall our safety profile is very desirable for boosting."
He added: "We're aware of this timing need for boosting in the UK and we certainly have that in our sights and if at all possible that we can be involved in that we would like to be.
"What I can say as a vaccinologist and immunologist is that we are going to see immunity wane and you're going to need a boost. I think the UK is rightly, from a public health standpoint, presuming that you're going to need to boost people.
"Our vaccine is a recombinant vaccine, those are licens
ed, there is a tonne of experience with that from a safety standpoint as a platform.
"As people go out and start to contemplate the next step, a lot of them will pay attention to the safety profile and I think our vaccine gives them a desirable option."
He added that clinical trials had provided "incredible confirmation" that the vaccine was working well.
"I think that's going to be important information for those conducting boosting campaigns as well as for people who are selecting what they want to have done with their arm," he said.
Asked about new variants, he added: "We're trying to be ready – our technology allows us to make different vaccines.
"I do think this is encouraging, it looks like high-quality antibodies cover a lot of variation."