UK public is still as divided as five years ago over the Brexit debate says report – with Leave still having a small majority
The UK is as divided on the issue of Brexit as it was five years ago during the referendum, a new report has found, with polls suggesting the Leave campaign would also win narrowly if there was a vote to rejoin the European Union.
The report by whatukthinks. org and the National Centre for Social Research (Natcen) argues that in the general public’s view, Brexit has been “far from an unalloyed success”.
The research, led by Sir John
Curtice, senior fellow at Natcen and professor of politics at Strathclyde University, suggests that if a second referendum had been held at any time in the past five years, there would most likely have been a narrow lead for Remain.
It found those who did not vote in 2016 have consistently been twice as likely to say they would have voted Remain than that they would vote Leave.however,someofthose who say they were Remainers also say they would not vote to rejoin the EU.
As a result, Prof Curtice said it was “estimated that a
referendum held now on ‘rejoin versus stay out’ could well produce a narrow majority – 52 per cent – in favour of staying out.”
The research also found 82 per cent of those who voted in 2016 would cast their vote in the same way today as they did five years ago.
The report, based on a unique series of 12 surveys of 2,000 people across the UK between September 2016 and January 2021, found the public “remain resolute – and divided – in their views on Britain’s decision to leave the EU”.
And while only one in three who voted Leave feel positively about the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, according to another of the polls, 75 per cent of Leave voters still expect leaving the EU to result in either less immigration or a better economy.
Shortly after the UK-EU free trade deal was unveiled, just 21 per cent in Britain said the UK had left with a good deal, compared with 36 per cent who said it was a bad deal – though that rose to 53 per cent among Remainers.
“In contrast, Leave voters were more likely to say that the UK has obtained a good deal – 35 per cent – than a bad one – 22 per cent,” said Prof Curtice. “This means only just over one in three who voted Leave feel positively about the outcome.”