Easing of restrictions does not mean risk is any less

If you are not fully vaccinated, you are far more likely to contract Covid-19 now than at any other time in the pandemic.

Community transmission of the virus is at its highest ever rate, particularly in cities such as Edinburgh and Dundee, which have been named among the top Covid hotspots of the UK – itself already the Covid hotspot of Europe, clocking up more daily cases than the EU nations combined.

Yet, pubs, restaurants and shops are all open – and doing a roaring trade. You can sit with others in a hairdresser or beautician and exercise in a busy gym, yoga class or swimming pool. We have got to a point in the national psyche where, whatever the bare figures we see in front of us are, it it is easier to believe that restrictions must be easing because the risk is somehow less. The Emperor’s New Clothes of Covid stats.

In fact, the latest Office for National Statistics survey shows that around one in 150 people in Scotland was infected with the virus in the week ending 26 June. Around 80 per cent of current cases are in the under 45 bracket due to successful double vaccination in older people. So, if you also fall into that age group and generally mix with other people of a similar age, according to my back-of-the-fag-packet calculation, you are probably looking at around one in 90 of your friends currently being infectious. More, if you live in a city.

The balance between keeping the economy open and protecting public health is tricky. Yet that is the key. The government’s focus is, quite rightly, on overall public health – not your health. Vaccines have protected the most vulnerable, those who, quite bluntly, are going to cost the NHS more money and resources if they got Covid.

Yet the longer term impact on younger people – such as for the one in ten who suffer from long Covid symptoms months after recovering from the virus – are not so burdensome on the state - yet. For individuals who end up with these problems, however, the effects can be life changing. It is simple: if you wanted to avoid infection during the first or second waves, it is no different now – whatever social opportunities are on offer.