Play-off stats so far show Suns and Bucks set for thrilling series
The NBA Finals start after midnight tonight with the Phoenix Suns hosting the Milwaukee Bucks in the first of the seven-game series.
The Suns were always expected to be here or hereabouts as the second seed in the West and they saw off the LA Clippers 4-2 in to reach the Finals after the Clippers had disposed of the No 1 seed Utah Jazz.
This is the Suns third trip to the Finals, and they are still seeking their first championship, having lost on the previous two (1976, 1993).
The Milwaukee Bucks emerged from an Eastern Conference Finals that no one predicted. The Bucks saw off the Atlanta Hawks in six games, winning their fourth game on Saturday night 118-10.
As the adage goes, "defence wins championships", and these two are the best defensive teams in the playoffs. For Milwaukee, that's a change from the regular-season when they were the highest-scoring offence, averaging a little over 120 points a game. Their defence was ranked just 22nd. In the play-offs, the Bucks have dropped to 103.7 points allowed per game, – a massive 11-point decrease. A change of that magnitude shows that the team is willing to do everything it can to win this championship.that has come at a cost. Their offensive production has dropped to 109.8, almost 11 points the other way. Still, they are facing elite defences in the play-offs
The Suns are the only team with a better defence since the start of the play-offs. Their average points allowed per game is down eight from the regular season figure of 101.9.
On the offensive side, the Suns have been mediocre. Although, with that stingy defence, they seem to have found a balance. Phoenix were averaging 115.3 points during the regular season, dropping to 108.9 through their playoff run.
When it comes to three-point shots, both teams average 11.3 made per game each. But when you break that down to percentages, things get interesting. The Suns score on 37 per cent of their three-point shots, a massive six per cent more than the Bucks.
This trend continues for the Suns in all the shooting statistics with a two per cent advantage overall and a 15 per cent difference on free throws.
So why is this important? Well, Milwaukee's leading stats are rebounds. That's how the Bucks have been beating teams with dominating play at the rim.
They lead the postseason in rebounds after finishing third in the regular season. On the offensive side of the ball, they are out-rebounding the Suns 12 to eight per game.
Rebounds are crucial in basketball as teams try to gain as many possessions as possible, but of course, a rebound generally occurs after a missed shot.
If the Suns continue to hit the shots at a higher percentage rate, it reduces the Bucks' possessions and blunts the turnover points and possessions.
Added to that, both teams are matched on blocks. While Milwaukee have a slight edge in forcing turnovers, this is set to be a tight series.
Of course, both these teams also have stars ready to jump at the opportunity to shine. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo,(bucks) and Devin Booker (Suns) are prepared to steal the show if they get the chance.
No one expected the Finals to be between these two smaller market teams and, while TV stations will be grieving financially, these two line-ups look set to deliver a thrilling series.