Do we still deny ticking time bomb?

German flooding is a 'historic catastrophe' that shows just how dangerous climate change really is

When scientists set the target of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, they did so to help the world avoid “dangerous” climate change. But they subsequently deemed this threshold too high and, by the time the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, the goal was moved to limiting the increase to as close to 1.5C as possible.

Clearly, the definition of “dangerous” is a subjective one, but it was based on scientific research into the various effects of climate change – rising sea levels, more powerful storms, heavier rainfall and associated flooding, drought, wildfires, the disruption of ecosystems and species extinction. There have been a number of extreme weather events in the years since, including wildfires in Australia and the United States, the searing heatwave that affected much of the US and Canada in recent weeks, and now the astonishing floods in Western Europe, particularly Germany and Belgium.

More than 120 people were confirmed to have died by yesterday evening, with hundreds more who were unaccounted for. The hope was that the massive damage to infrastructure in the area, which has affected mobile phone reception and internet connections, meant that most of these people were still alive but had simply been unable to make contact.

In addition to countless wrecked houses and buildings, cars strewn about like toys, wrecked roads, and collapsed bridges, supplies of running water and electricity have been cut off in some areas.

Malu Dreyer, the governor of Rhineland-palatinate state, described the damage as “so dramatic and enormous that we will have to deal with this issue for a long time to come”. She added: “Climate change isn't abstract any more. We are experiencing it up close and painfully.” Her counterpart in North Rhine-westphalia, Armin Laschet, said it was a “catastrophe of historic proportions”. German President Frank-walter Steinmeier said he was "stunned" by the extent of the damage. “In the hour of need, our country stands together,” he said. “It's important that we show solidarity for those from whom the flood has taken everything.”

This is what climate change looks like even before we reach 1.5C of warming, a threshold we are almost certain to exceed. How much more “dangerous” do we want it to get?