No pro-union boost for Tories as EX-SNP aide labels indyref2 ‘waste of time’
Both Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss as Prime Minister could see a drop in support for the union at a second independence referendum, a new poll has suggested.
It comes as a former senior adviser to the SNP labelled the decision to refer the question of whether Holyrood can legislate for a referendum to the Supreme Court a “waste of time and money”.
The poll, undertaken by Panelbase for the Sunday Times interviewed 1,133 adults in Scotland, and showed support for independence at 49 per cent and 51 per cent for the union with don’t knows excluded.
However, with Liz Truss as Prime Minister, voters say they would back Yes at 52 per cent and No at 48 per cent, with Rishi Sunak on slightly better on Yes 51 per cent and No 49 per cent.
It comes as the two prospective replacements for Boris Johnson continue to jostle on the best approach to Nicola Sturgeon.
The Foreign Secretary told activists she would simply “ignore” the First Minister, while the former chancellor said he would “take her on and beat her”.
Ms Truss has also said she wishes to brand the SNP as
“separatists” rather than nationalists in a bid to weaken the appeal of independence, with her key ally Lord Frost last week stating it was time to “start fighting back” against the party.
Mr Sunak has instead sounded closer to the policy from Michael Gove which preferred quietly getting on with demonstrating the benefits of the union through direct investment from the UK Government into Scottish councils and charities.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice said: “Simply arguing that another referendum should not be held at all seems unlikely to win many converts. While 44 per cent oppose a referendum in the next five years, 48 per cent are in favour.
“Ultimately the Union will only be safe if people in Scotland come to believe in it. But it is far from clear that the next prime minister will have the right strategy to achieve that.”
The poll also comes after Alex Bell, a former Scottish Government special adviser under Alex Salmond and a negotiator of the Edinburgh Agreement in 2014 which led to the first referendum, said Nicola Sturgeon knows a referendum bill is unlawful and a waste of money.
He said the First Minister has known since 2007 that a referendum “is Westminster’s call”, and that pursuing the question is merely a “piece of theatre designed to disguise how the SNP has failed nationalists”.
Referencing the lack of a referendum bill under Mr Salmond during the first SNP government, Mr Bell said “the reason was simple”.
He added: “Advice from officials, including informal legal advice, was that Holyrood’s lawyers would reject the bill on the ground that it went beyond the competence of the parliament.
“Salmond and Sturgeon knew of this, but it’s not clear whether the cabinet did. Nobody told the party. Loyalists put the delay of the referendum bill down to Salmond’s cunning — a misreading that neither the party nor its opponents challenged.”
Following the SNP’S unprecedented landslide in 2011, there was another recommendation from Scottish Government lawyers that a bill would be unlawful.
Mr Bell wrote: “The same team of officials in the small constitution team advised that the only option was to ask a roundabout question — for example, to hold a referendum on whether the parliament should have the power to demand independence.
"This would become a de facto indy vote. The risk was that it might also be ruled illegal, and if not that opponents would boycott it.”
He added what he believes to be an inevitable defeat at the Supreme Court would see the “Salmond, Sturgeon and Swinney era will end in ignominy”.
The former adviser added: “The present political myth is that the Tories ignore Scotland and Labour betrayed us. In time, the SNP leadership will join this list of disappointments.”
Responding, the SNP’S depute Westminster leader, Kirsten Oswald, said that the poll demonstrated people in Scotland were “sick [and] fed up of disastrous Tory politicians they didn’t vote for” and that it was “further proof ” of a desire for independence.
She said: “On one side we have a law-breaking former Chancellor who consistently refused to implement meaningful support for the most vulnerable, exacerbating the already spiralling Tory-made cost of living crisis, all while standing by the disgraced Boris Johnson all the way to the bitter end.
“And on the other side we have a poundshop Thatcher tribute act determined to shirk responsibility for the mess the UK is in, and ignore Scotland’s democratically elected First Minister and the people of Scotland’s mandate for an independence referendum.
“While both candidates squabble in their protracted distraction of a leadership election, vulnerable households are doing what they can to gear up for a brutal winter defined by soaring energy bills and difficult choices between whether to heat or eat.
“So far neither Sunak or Truss has offered up the prospectus to prevent that miserable reality from coming to fruition and plunging millions more into poverty and destitution.
“It makes sense we’re seeing an increase in support for the SNP and independence”.
Rishi Sunak’s camp tells Liz Truss to ‘come clean’ over ‘dangerous’ tax plans
Liz Truss will plunge the economy into an “inflation spiral” if she does not choose between her unfunded £50 billion tax cuts or providing cost-of-living support, her Tory leadership rival has warned.
Rishi Sunak’s campaign said the Foreign Secretary would increase borrowing to “historic and dangerous levels”, and place public finances into “serious jeopardy”, if she attempts both.
The comments came after Ms Truss, the frontrunner to be the next prime minister, signalled she could help firms and households with soaring energy bills with direct support this winter.
She was looking at assistance “across the board” despite in the past insisting she was focused on tax cuts rather than what she termed “giving out handouts”.
A statement from Mr
Sunak's campaign said: “Following weeks of rejecting direct support payments as 'handouts', Truss supporters have slowly woken up to the reality of what winter brings. They now say that they will provide people with help – but what help, for who, when and how it will be paid for remains a mystery.
“The reality is that Truss cannot deliver a support package as well as come good on £50 billion worth of unfunded, permanent tax cuts in one go. To do so would mean increasing borrowing to historic and dangerous levels, putting the public finances in serious jeopardy and plunging the economy into an inflation spiral.”
The row comes ahead of Ofgem's announcement on Friday when the regulator is expected to hike the cap on energy bills from £1,971 to around £3,600.
The former chancellor's team also seized on reports that Ms Truss is not planning to ask the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) for a forecast ahead of the emergency budget she is planning for next month.
“It's no wonder they want to avoid independent scrutiny of the OBR in their emergency budget – they know you can’t do both and it’s time they came clean about that now,” Mr Sunak's camp said.
Ms Truss's economic vision and her reported plans for the OBR, which is required to produce two forecasts a year, was coming under increasing attacks from Tory critics.
Lord Griffiths, the Conservative peer who served as Margaret Thatcher's head of policy, said: “The Bank of England’s devastating outlook for the economy contrasts with Liz’s optimism – for her to now prevent the OBR doing proper analysis of the facts would seem to indicate complete loss of confidence in the policy she is advocating."
Conservative heavyweight Michael Gove warned in an article for The Times that Ms Truss was on a “holiday from reality” with her plans for tax cuts during an economic crisis as he endorsed Mr Sunak.
Mr Gove, who served as levelling-up secretary until being sacked by Boris Johnson before his resignation as Tory leader, said Ms Truss's vision puts the “stock options of FTSE 100 executives” before the nation's poorest.
Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, a close ally of Ms Truss who is tipped to be her chancellor, insisted there would be fresh support this winter as energy bills soar. So far, Ms Truss has focused on cutting taxes, such as an immediate reversal of the national insurance hike.