Independence ‘would lead to living standards falling for decades’
It could take 30 to 60 years for Scotland to reach a prosperous fiscal footing, with the intervening period marked by a decline in living standards, an academic has claimed.
Professor John Bryson of Birmingham University, an expert in enterprise and economic geography, used the economic record of a newly independent ireland as a blue print for how Scotland would fare if it voted to leave the UK.
“The Scottish Government should acknowledge that post independence would involve a long adjustment period,” he wrote in an analysis of the recent paper released by the Scottish Government on Scotland’s post-independence economy.
“I would suggest this should take between one or two generations, or between 30 and 60 years. These will be difficult years during which living standards and public service provision will decline as Scotland negotiates a new future with Britain and with other trading partners.
“Building a new Scotland will initially require fiscal restraint that will be reflected in a decline in public service provision.”
Issues around the Border between Scotland and England, the academic said, will “take decades to solve”, while the prospectus in the paper is unachievable “this decade”.
Prof Bryson highlighted the importance for there to be a “rigorous and balanced assessment” of Scotland’ s economy post-independence.
He added: “The current Scottish Government should acknowledge that breaking away from the UK would be difficult and that there would be immediate economic and public service consequences, and that adjustments would occur over decades rather than years .” the paper laid out some plans around an independent Scotland’s currency, borders and more detail on a proposed £20 billion capital fund to be set up in the first decade after independence.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who admitted independence did not guarantee economic prosperity, said: “We argue in this paper that a stronger, fairer, more sustainableeconomy is more possible for Scotland with independence than it ever will be with Westminster control.”
The document detailed her Government’s proposals for a separate Scottish pound, but she repeatedly refused to give a timescale for moving to the new currency.