Arrest may see SNP struggle to recover

Polling expert Sir John Curtice has said yesterday’s events would not necessarily affect SNP support but may make it more difficult to recover lost ground.

Speaking to the BBC, Sir John was asked how it would hit the SNP. “Perhaps not necessarily as much as the drama might suggest,” he said. “The reason for saying that is that we have now had five opinion polls since the arrest of Nicola Sturgeon’s husband … but the level of support for the SNP in the polls at 38 per cent is exactly what it was on average after Humza Yousaf became leader.

“Now that’s not to say the SNP doesn’t have it’s political difficulties, it certainly does. It faces a Labour party north

Sir John Curtice said the SNP is facing several difficulties

of the Border which is much rejuvenated. It is also true SNP support is down from what it was when Nicola Sturgeon resigned, but the decline in support occurred during the SNP leadership contest, and the problem Humza Yousaf faces is that voters in Scotland, including many of those who voted SNP, are not necessarily convinced that [he] is the right person to be first minister.

“Now, how does he want to

try and reverse that position? Well, by being able to get onto the front foot to present the SNP and his government in a positive light, and it is that task which is frankly made pretty much impossible for so long as these allegations are in play.

“In other words, there is not necessarily going to be direct impact on SNP support, the problem is that it will make it more difficult for the SNP to recover.”