Tory rebels could resume plot to oust Sunak before general election
Conservative MPS are braced for a fresh bout of plotting against Rishi Sunak in the wake of the local elections across England and Wales.
Most backbenchers claim they remain loyal to the Prime Minister but many expect a small number of rebels to resume their attempts to replace him before the general election.
The mayoral contests in the West Midlands and the Tees Valley were seen as key to whether or not Mr Sunak faces a formal challenge in the coming days. One MP said as voters went to the polls: “I think there’s going to be some mischief at the end of the week.”
The MP warned that the party’s internal culture had become more divided: “We’ve always been a broad church whichcantoleratepeopledisagreeing.butwe’velostthatnow – everyone is a devil or a hero.”
The Conservatives were widely forecast to lose at least 300 councillors, as well as a byelectioninblackpoolsouthand a number of high-profile mayoralties.
West Midlands Mayor Andy Street and Tees Valley’s Ben Houchen were aiming for reelection but downplayed their ties to the Conservatives and used former prime minster Boris Johnson’s endorsement in their campaign materials. A backbencherpredictedthefate of the two men would decide whether or not Mr Sunak is in trouble, saying: “I don’t think it will kick off, unless the results areanabsolutedisasterandwe lose all the mayoralties. But if we keep one of West Midlands and the Tees Valley, then it’s fine.”
Onegovernmentinsideradded: “We’re going to get a battering but there should still be something for Rishi to cling on to.”
Another government source said the rebel operation was “one man and his dog”, adding: “There’s no discernible evidence of anything happening. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have to be vigilant.”
Only two Conservative MPS, both close allies of Mr Johnson, have openly called for the Prime Minister to step down before the general election. He would face a vote of confidence if 52 MPS submitted letters to backbench chief Sir Graham Brady requesting one.
While the Tories may be bracedforadifficultday,recent history shows results of local and mayoral elections are not automatic predictors for the outcome of the next general election. The results of the past two general elections, in 2017 and 2019, did not follow the trend set out in the preceding town hall polls. However, the results will still be crucial in termsofmoraleinboththeconservative and Labour parties.
General elections are often about momentum as much as policies – and Sir Keir Starmer will hope a good night for Labour can be carried through to general election day.
Chris Hopkins, director of polling company Savanta, said: “Local elections are a helpful indicator of future general elections, but only to a point. They give a sense of the wider mood music, but because of low turnout, hyper-local issues and smaller parties acting as disrupters, the importance of local elections can sometimes be overstated, and the analysis sometimesoverplayed,interms of their importance for general elections.”