A boring bank manager won’t halt news np’s decline
◆ A new First Minister dragooned out of retirement is unlikely to quell the discontent of activists, says Kenny Macaskill
It was a coronation not a challenge for John Swinney, thus avoiding what he’d previously faced when leading the SNP. But even though he won comfortably then and would have done so again, it’s indicative of a malaise surrounding him.
For whilst he commands widespread respect, he neither enthuses the wider membership, let alone activists, nor cows dissent. Moreover, whilst experienced, the fact he’s stepped down twice before and his recent ministerial performances have taken much of the sheen off his political persona.
He’s not the continuity candidate, more the “circling the wagons” candidate. After Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation, the task was to continue it and Humza Yousaf was the one chosen to do that, albeit only just sneaking in ahead of Kate Forbes. With his fall, it became obvious that Sturgeonism was over.
But her legacy had to be protected, reputations defended and even positions maintained. Forbes would have been a reset of the party. Changes at HQ as well as in government would have followed. A new direction would have been taken. That has all been cast asunder.
The New SNP oligarchy – in a panic that Forbes might win – dragooned Swinney out of retirement. Senior figures were out pleading for it or at home phoning to achieve it. His victory will see them sleep easier, even if the party’s decline will continue. But, as I used to say about Labour and which now applies to the SNP, those in charge don’t really care so long as they remain in situ.
To be fair, some changes will be made by Swinney and Sturgeonism is now officially over. But the deal to neuter Forbes means that the changes will be more superficial and a rolling back of much of the lunacy forged in the axis of idiocy with the Greens will remain. There’ll be no formal deal with the Greens but there’ll be a tacit agreement not to roll back on the gender and identity politics.
That was clear in Swinney’s refusal to address the question as to what was a woman. It’ll come back to haunt him though as the issue hasn’t gone away. Forbes’ personal convictions will be tholed, but the legacy will remain.
There may well be spats with the Greens but that will suit both. Fundamentally though, he’ll seek to do back door deals with Patrick Harvie rather than strike out as a minority government. That’s because it’s not just that Swinney is risk averse but devoid of political courage and vision. It’ll be managerialism writ large which was his problem before and will remain so now.
Sensible moves like shrinking the hugely bloated Cabinet will be taken and, with Forbes and a few others returning, there’ll be some increase in Cabinet talent. A genuflection towards growing the economy will be made but it’s late in the day. Independence will be parked, simply increasing activist discontent. Meanwhile the lack of vision will remain.
Presiding over decline just doesn’t inspire, when what’s being sought by the country’s a bold alternative, not a boring bank manager. Sturgeonism’s gone, Swinneyism’s arrived but New SNP remain in charge. Plus ça change, as they say.