At least EU politicians care about farming

DEMOCRACY produces some bizarre outcomes.

The gap between remain and leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum was four percentage points – 48 to 52 – that decision was carried by votes in England and Wales, but not Scotland nor Northern Ireland.

However, the government insisted the result must be implemented. Roll the clock on a few years and now twothirds in polls believe there is a case for a referendum to rejoin the EU. This reflects a belief in the same surveys that Brexit has harmed the economy and reduced the UK’s global influence.

That figure can only climb as the UK feels the effects of forecasts that it will be the world’s worst performing economy this year.

No matter how bad things get, there will no new referendum and no rejoining the EU for many years. The challenge now is to find ways to get better results from bad decisions by the government around how Brexit was implemented – albeit made worse by a perfect storm of Covid, war in Ukraine and inflation at levels not seen for forty years.

Polls might create the conditions for the UK to rejoin the EU single market as a member of the European Economic Area, ending at a stroke many of the trade tensions and all the problems around the Northern Ireland protocol.

However, that is a decision that would tear the already ailing Conservative Party even further apart, so it is unlikely this side of a general election. Instead, government will continue emulating Mr Micawber in Dickens’ David Copperfield, hoping against the odds that ‘something will turn up’ to make things better.

The disillusion people feel about how Brexit was delivered is certainly felt in agriculture. Many believed assurances that freedom from EU regulations would unleash the potential of a progressive industry and open up new home market opportunities.

Instead, it opened up the UK to cheap food imports to buy trade deals, while making access to our biggest and best market more difficult. Any hopes of a policy difference have been dashed by government choosing not to follow a global agenda, but to adopt a me-too approach to EU green policies.

It is seeking to burnish its green credentials by going even further, but without the money to do so. The EU has compulsory nature restoration legislation as part of the CAP and the UK this week promised, for England, that no-one would live more than a few minutes walk from water or green spaces.

They can presumably visit these to walk off a good lunch of southern hemisphere lamb. Agriculture is simply not part of the government’s green vision and this is radically different from what now discredited politicians promised when canvassing farmers to vote leave.

That politicians lied, is no surprise – that so many fell for those lies just adds to the sense of disappointment and frustration.

There can be no question that in Westminster there is a lack of interest and political engagement with agriculture. This is not the case in the EU, partly because the CAP still accounts for such a large share of the budget.

Farm ministers are heeded and despite a green agenda, real farming issues around production and markets are still pursued. This was evident at this week’s farm council, where ministers debated at length and in private whether things are getting better or whether the EU might be forced to use its crisis reserve to help with input costs.

Concerns remain around the fragility of cereal supplies from Ukraine, despite easier access to the Black Sea ports and the special supply lanes to ease access to the EU. Beyond that there are hopes, but no certainty, that some of the cost pressures on farming are easing.

The EC says energy costs globally have eased and that the cost and availability of fertiliser has improved. However, it is questionable whether this will close the gap from last year, when farm prices rose 24%, but input costs rose by 30%.

Now that input prices show some signs of easing, farm prices, led by dairy, appear to be under some pressure – with the major UK supermarkets exerting their muscle against higher prices from suppliers.

Around this cost/price debate there is no certainty, but at least in the EU there is a sense politicians care about what happens in agriculture. That, sadly, is not apparent in Westminster.

‘There can be no question that Westminster has a lack of interest and political engagement with agriculture. This is not the case in the EU, partly because the CAP accounts for such a large share of the budget’