Tories facing a Catch 22 conundrum

TODAY’S exclusive poll on independence voting intentions gives interesting political food for thought.

The main question on whether voters wanted or rejected independence confirmed the static situation portrayed in polls over the past year: 32 per cent Yes, 52 per cent No.

But the answers to the remaining two questions will fuel the hopes of the Yes camp. Asked how they would vote if they believed the Conservatives would win a majority in the 2015 General Election, 3 per cent of No voters switched to Yes, changing the ratio to Yes 35 per cent, No 49 per cent.

The cut in the No lead from 20 points to 14 shows this represented a straight crossover from No to Yes. When further asked how people would vote if they thought the Tories would be in power for up to 15 years, the No lead was reduced to 9 per cent.

This poll was commissioned in response to Labour leader Johann Lamont’s warning last week to Ed Miliband that Scots might vote Yes if they thought Labour was too weak to beat David Cameron. She urged Labour’s London leadership to campaign in Scotland.

That could prove counter-productive: Ed Miliband’s popularity ratings are low and bringing English politicians to Scotland could backfire. Labour has been doing well in local and Holyrood by-elections, so perhaps Johann Lamont’s concern is misplaced.

But these interesting statistics show the Conservatives in a Catch 22 situation: as the improving economy raises their electoral prospects, the Union becomes consequently endangered. The referendum campaign has just become more interesting.