HAMISH MACDONELL:
IMAGINE a scale from one to ten, with one meaning you are totally opposed to independence and ten signifying that you are absolutely devoted to the concept. Where would you place yourself on that scale? Somewhere in the middle possibly? Most Scots find themselves somewhere between three and seven, so the chances are you are probably in that range too.
The scale is useful, firstly, because it shows that this whole independence debate is not about absolutes – however much the politicians on both sides would like to claim that it is. Really, it is full of grey areas and uncertainties because we can all see some advantages – however small – in both sides of the argument.
But the scale is also useful because it provides a very important clue to the way Yes Scotland is going to conduct the rest of this campaign.
That one-to-ten scale is exactly the one Yes activists will be using from now until September 18. They will ask voters where they think they are on that scale; and then adjust their campaigning techniques for each individual accordingly.
The aim is to take those who are twos or threes (generally sceptical about independence, but not vehemently opposed to it) and move them up to be sixes, sevens or eights. But it is also about taking those fives, sixes and sevens and moving them up to become eights, nines and tens.
The Nationalists talk about the ‘journey’ they want to take voters on, from cautious scepticism about independence to enthusiastic support. But they know this process takes time. The voter has to trust the person who is trying to convince them of the virtues of independence and it is here the other key part of the Yes campaign comes in – Facebook.
Yes Scotland has recruited 13,000 ambassadors, each of whom has signed up to a scheme to convert nine fellow Scots to independence every month. They don’t all have to be converted through Facebook but the social media site is the key tool.
The scheme started six months before the referendum and, if all those ambassadors recruit nine voters a month, they will have converted more than 700,000 Scots to independence – almost certainly enough to win the vote.
On the surface, this quiet Facebook assault seems a little underhand. For instance, ambassadors are advised to start conversations about independence with friends and family members, conversations which appear spontaneous, but are nothing of the sort.
The ambassadors use crib sheets and point cards to direct the conversation towards the right areas and take their time, going back to the subjects time and again to convince friends of the merits of independence.
The voters may not know they are being wooed in such a systematic and planned way and, from the outside, it does appear a little insidious, even sinister.
But the key point here is trust. Yes Scotland managers have been
DEEP in the bowels of the Scottish Government building in Edinburgh is a room with a series of clocks on the wall showing the time in various global centres – including Tokyo, New York and Sydney.
It looks very impressive, just the sort of the thing
very canny in keeping away from overt messages on Facebook, preferring instead to use the power of friend-to-friend contacts.
THERE is nothing illegal about this campaign: it may push the boundaries ethically, but that’s probably about all. However, this is just one of the many ways in which Yes Scotland has out-thought and outcampaigned its Unionist rival.
Better Together has generally been acknowledged as the winner in the air war – which is the campaign fought in the media.
Yes Scotland, meanwhile, has clearly done better in the ground war – the battle fought in the towns and villages of Scotland, in the public meetings and coffee mornings where the activists have been spreading the independence message. Now it is
you would expect for the government of a thrusting, new country – until you look closely at the clocks and realise that one is showing the wrong time.
It is, of course, the one showing the local, Edinburgh, time that is wrong – well it would be, wouldn’t it.
IT appears Nick Clegg has found the perfect way to deal with tricky questions. At an event in Edinburgh last week, the Deputy Prime Minister asked one would-be interrogator: ‘Would you like me to send you some of my speeches, so you’ll know what I mean?’ Unsurprisingly, the man decided to keep quiet after that.
clear Yes Scotland is also winning the third area of the battle, the cyberspace war.
This part of the campaign stretches far beyond Facebook. For instance, if a canvasser is talking to a voter on the doorstep and the voter is suspicious about the economy or defence or the currency, then the activist can have an email containing all the relevant information sent remotely to that voter’s inbox, there and then.
Better Together simply cannot run the same sort of campaign because the Unionists are not trying to convert anybody. It is in the business of reinforcement and reassurance, not conversion.
Things really have changed. The 2010 General Election was the first to really harness the 24hour-a-day news power of the internet. The 2011 Scottish election was the first where smartphone apps became a key part of campaigning. The 2014 independence referendum could be the first major contest to be decided by Facebook – if only because it now reaches a staggering 70 per cent of the population.
If, as SNP strategists believe, their Facebook campaign can take a large number of those cautious voters and take them on a journey from being twos and threes up to being sevens and eights on the scale, then it really could swing this referendum in favour of the Nationalists.
If that happens, the first person Alex Salmond invites to Bute House to celebrate should be a man with the same middle name as him, Elliot; a man who wasn’t even born when he started fighting his way to the top of the SNP: Mark Zuckerberg.
The Facebook entrepreneur may have imagined many things for his invention – but surely not even he envisaged playing a part in breaking up one of the most famous unions in the world.